Rhode Island's Revised Labor Market Data



For the better part of a year, I have been addressing the problems with Rhode Island's "official" labor market data. On several occasions in years past, we have had situations where a divergence between the direction of changes in actual and official data emerged. Historically, though, these never occurred until October. Within a couple of months, we would get the rebenchmarked data and we'd be back to the correct labor market trends.

 

In this most recent episode, we were treated to something I had never seen in over two decades of analyzing Rhode Island's economy: a divergence between actual and "official" data that started in the first half of the year. Before I became aware of this, I had detailed how horrible the official data were in a series of blog posts. If those data were to be believed, then Rhode Island would indeed have entered into a double-dip recession.

 

The picture painted by that data was so incredibly negative, I became suspicious that things could be that bad -- even for Rhode Island! The primary basis for my suspicions was the apparent strength in a number of key economic indicators such as retail sales. While it was possible to explain some of the apparent divergences between retail sales and labor market weakness based the fact that Rhode Island rents out substantial numbers of its skilled residents to our neighboring states, I continued to sense that something still wasn't right. Then, one day, I received an email from the Department of Labor and Training stating that when these data are revised, they will show that payroll employment has been actually been rising, not falling, for some time now, a total contradiction of the "official" data.

 

In light of this rather strange situation, I went back and dusted off my econometric models for Rhode Island's labor market and updated them using only non-survey based data. Using those models, I then ran simulations attempting to gauge for myself what was actually happening, in spite of what the "official" data continued to say. Using the results of those simulations, I began to provide two monthly numbers for my Current Conditions Index: one was based on the "official" flawed data; the other was consistent with my simulated values. From that time forward, I presented what I was able to ascertain about the actual conditions in Rhode Island through this Blog and my monthly CCI reports.

 

I think of this time as my "Maytag Repairman" period (if you recall those commercials), as I was all alone in this endeavor, since all that was known and reported by our state's media was the flawed "official" monthly data. That, of course, created a real problem here since the data everyone was basing decisions on substantially understated Rhode Island's actual economic performance. Ironically, that made me the most positive and upbeat person when it came to assessing Rhode Island's economic performance. Accuracy cuts both ways!!!

 

Last week, the revised data were at long last made public. What they showed was what I had anticipated and written about since around March 2012, that things here were actually better that we had been led to believe. Ironically, using the newly corrected data, the revised Current Conditions Index values were very close to the corrected values I had stated using my econometric simulations.  In this post, I want to present three charts that highlight what was going on throughout that entire time period.

 

The first of these charts contrasts the originally presented data with the revised data going back to 2010 (click to enlarge). As should be apparent from this chart, there is a very substantial difference in the two sets of data that began around August of 2011. Perhaps most importantly, Rhode Island never flirted with the double-dip recession. Very much to the contrary, employment has shown a fairly healthy increase over the past two years, healthy for Rhode Island at least.

The next chart (click to enlarge) shows the same data as the above chart but includes the actual trend for the correct data. I will leave it to you to figure out the trend for the inaccurate original data.

 

 

The final chart (click to enlarge) shows changes in payroll employment for each month over the past two years. These are year-over-year changes, which means each month compares its value to the value one year ago (ex: December of 2012 with December of 2011, etc.).

 

 

The most striking feature of this chart is how year-over-year changes became negative starting all the way back in October of 2011, which led to the conclusion by some that Rhode Island may well have entered into a double-dip recession. That is the faulty data I found it necessary to improve the accuracy of through my simulations, ultimately reporting them in my monthly CCI reports. By contrast, the revised data show that year-over-year changes were never negative over this entire period: employment each month continued to exceed its year-earlier value. 



 

Where does this leave us? Rhode Island is doing considerably better than we were led to believe based on the flawed "official" labor market data (based on the old benchmark). We have never flirted with a double-dip recession since the end of the last recession almost three years ago. But while Rhode Island's economy was improving, so too were the economies of almost every other state. So, six years from our prior payroll employment peak (December of 2006), Rhode Island employment remains about six percent below where it once was. Ironically, while our unemployment rate has declined, it is now below 10 percent, we continue to have either the highest or one of the highest jobless rates in the country.

  

How are these changes in payroll employment linked to our state's unemployment rate and its national ranking? What this post has shown is that Rhode Island's level of employment has continued to rise and never fall, as the original data showed. What matters in addition to this is how rapidly our employment is rising. Sadly, that's where Rhode Island comes up short. Rhode Island failed to reinvent itself and make itself more competitive throughout The Great Recession and afterwards.

 

Sadly, our elected officials appear to believe that because they have now decided that they actually want to do something about this, we should be able to quickly and easily remedy our state's deficiencies. Apparently they intend to go to Staples and purchase an "Easy" button. Sadly, things are never that easy. It will take a great deal of hard work and consistent effort guided by due diligence before things here begin to change in any significant way. Sadly, that's very different than their current standard operating procedure, D + M: Denial + Manana. If the day ever comes when our elected officials actually begin to lead, all of us will be happily surprised by how much our state's economy will be able to improve.

 

Current Conditions Index: December 2012

Below is an abbreviated version of the December Current Conditions Index report. The full report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on my web site: http://www.llardaro.com .
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What an incredible way to end 2012! The Current Conditions Index for December rose all the way to 92 — its highest level since November of 2003. It is now abundantly clear that Rhode Island’s economic performance during the fourth quarter was its strongest in terms of overall momentum (not levels, though) for quite some time. The fourth quarter average for the CCI was 80.7 using the flawed labor market data, and 86 with my estimates of how the numbers will be changed with the release of the rebenchmarked data. More importantly, though, the labor market data apparently became less flawed as 2012 progressed, so for December, and hopefully future months, a single CCI value   accurately characterizes Rhode Island’s economic performance.

For December, eleven of the twelve CCI indicators improved. A number of these turned in relatively strong performances. The sole indicator that failed to improve was Government Employment, which reflects the effects of ongoing fiscal consolidation. While that indicator hasn’t improved since August of 2010, it might soon bottom if the momentum gains registered in the fourth quarter are sustained. At any rate, Rhode Island’s recovery was 34 months old as of December.

What all of this indicates is that during the fourth quarter, none of  the strong monthly performances we witnessed were “one month wonders.” What we saw unfolding was a trend of more broadly based economic activity that continued to increase our state’s economic momentum. It is now safe to conclude that as 2012 ended, Rhode Island’s economy shifted into a higher gear.

In light of this recent momentum, it is important reiterate the distinction between levels of economic activity and rates of growth. The Current Conditions Index is a momentum indicator. As such, its values reflect how broadly based economic activity is (i.e., the greater the number of improving indicators, the more broadly based is economic activity, indicating greater underlying momentum). It does not focus on the levels of the various indicators. So, as 2012 ended, we witnessed a broadening of economic activity that produced greater momentum, as reflected by the rates of change in the CCI indicators and our state’s economy. This says nothing about current levels. So, while Rhode Island’s economy continues to improve, driven by this added momentum, the levels of key variables like payroll employment remain well below the values they attained during the last recovery. We remain about six percent below our last employment peak, which explains the persistence of high unemployment here. According to the fourth quarter CCI performance, we are moving towards our prior peak more rapidly.

For December, all five of the non-survey-based indicators improved. Retail Sales sustained its recent strength, registering a strong 3.2 percent growth rate versus last December, its twelfth increase in the past fourteen months. Along with this, US Consumer Sentiment rose once again (+4.2%), helped by improvement in the national economy. Benefit Exhaustions, reflective of longer-term unemployment, barely fell, but its downward (improvement) trend remains intact. New home construction, based on Single-Unit Permits, surged by 35.1 percent, as home construction continues to move beyond its recent bottom. In spite of this, levels remain extremely subdued by historical standards, partly the result of the sustained declines  in our state’s population. Finally, layoffs, in terms of New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, fell sharply in December (4.9%), reversing last month’s increase.

Apparently the flawed labor market data became less problematic as 2012 ended. So, while its levels remain inaccurate, year-over-year changes have become more accurate, which explains improvements in key indicators like the Labor Force, Private Service-Producing Employment, and Employment Service Jobs. Manufacturing activity, though, has sustained it strength, as Total Manufacturing Hours rose by 3.7 percent, and our Manufacturing Wage growth slowed to “only” 4.8 percent.

The Current Conditions Index is a momentum indicator. Its values reflect how broadly based economic activity is (i.e., the greater the number of improving indicators, the more broadly based is economic activity) and the resulting underlying momentum. It does not, however, dwell upon the levels of the various indicators or the overall economy. So, at present, assuming the fourth quarter results hold, we are witnessing a broadening of economic activity here that has produced greater momentum. This reflects the rates of change of the CCI indicators and our state’s economy.  It says nothing about current levels. This is where things get a bit discouraging: while Rhode Island’s economy is improving, the levels of key variables like payroll employment remain far below the values they attained at the height of the last recovery (our employment peak occurred in December of 2006). We still remain about six percent below our employment peak. The recent CCI performance indicates that we are moving toward our prior peak at a more rapid rate. Obviously, the greater is sustained momentum, the shorter is the time before we reach a prior peak.   

For November, (at least) nine of the twelve CCI indicators improved. Importantly, November saw only the second increase in our state’s Labor Force since the end of 2010! Four of the five non-survey-based indicators, those that don’t suffer from the flaws currently plaguing the “official” labor market data, showed substantial improvement versus one year ago. Retail Sales sustained its recent strength, registering a strong 6 percent growth rate versus last November, its eleventh increase in the past thirteen months. Along with this, US Consumer Sentiment once again surged by just under 30 percent, helped by improvement in the national economy. Benefit Exhaustions, reflective of longer-term unemployment, also fell at a double-digit rate (-12.3%), sustaining its downward (improvement) trend. New home construction, based on Single-Unit Permits, rose by 3 percent, providing further evidence that it reached a bottom several months ago. In spite of this, its levels remain subdued, partly the result of our state’s declining population. The sole disappointment was for layoffs, in terms of New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, which rose by 1.6 percent.

See the full report at: http://www.llardaro.com  .

Current Conditions Index: November 2012

Below is an abbreviated version of the November Current Conditions Index report. The full report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on my web site: http://www.llardaro.com .

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As we moved further into the fourth quarter, the Rhode Island economy posted yet another strong performance. In November, Rhode Island’s economy sustained the jump in momentum we witnessed last month, which was itself the best we had seen here for quite a while. Using the flawed “official” labor market data, the Current Conditions Index registered a score of 75 for November, as nine of the twelve CCI indicators improved. And, a number of those improving indicators registered strong changes. Looking beyond the labor data inaccuracies, the more correct score for November is 83. Rhode Island’s recovery was 33 months old as of November.

This back-to-back strength provides a critical piece of evidence supporting the hypothesis that October’s strong performance was not a “one month wonder.” What we appear to be witnessing is a trend of more broadly based economic activity that has generated increased economic momentum. It thus appears that Rhode Island’s economy has now shifted into a higher gear.

This seems to suggest that the trend of uneven economic activity, the bounces in monthly CCI values we had been witnessing over the past several months, has now ended. However, just as it is not wise to place too much emphasis on the results of a single month, while two months tends to be more convincing, even more data is needed before it will be safe to arrive at this conclusion. In spite of this, it is now an appropriate time to address a meaningful distinction in terms of the assessment of economic activity: levels versus rates of growth.

The Current Conditions Index is a momentum indicator. Its values reflect how broadly based economic activity is (i.e., the greater the number of improving indicators, the more broadly based is economic activity) and the resulting underlying momentum. It does not, however, dwell upon the levels of the various indicators or the overall economy. So, at present, assuming the fourth quarter results hold, we are witnessing a broadening of economic activity here that has produced greater momentum. This reflects the rates of change of the CCI indicators and our state’s economy.  It says nothing about current levels. This is where things get a bit discouraging: while Rhode Island’s economy is improving, the levels of key variables like payroll employment remain far below the values they attained at the height of the last recovery (our employment peak occurred in December of 2006). We still remain about six percent below our employment peak. The recent CCI performance indicates that we are moving toward our prior peak at a more rapid rate. Obviously, the greater is sustained momentum, the shorter is the time before we reach a prior peak. 

  

For November, (at least) nine of the twelve CCI indicators improved. Importantly, November saw only the second increase in our state’s Labor Force since the end of 2010! Four of the five non-survey-based indicators, those that don’t suffer from the flaws currently plaguing the “official” labor market data, showed substantial improvement versus one year ago. Retail Sales sustained its recent strength, registering a strong 6 percent growth rate versus last November, its eleventh increase in the past thirteen months. Along with this, US Consumer Sentiment once again surged by just under 30 percent, helped by improvement in the national economy. Benefit Exhaustions, reflective of longer-term unemployment, also fell at a double-digit rate (-12.3%), sustaining its downward (improvement) trend. New home construction, based on Single-Unit Permits, rose by 3 percent, providing further evidence that it reached a bottom several months ago. In spite of this, its levels remain subdued, partly the result of our state’s declining population. The sole disappointment was for layoffs, in terms of New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, which rose by 1.6 percent. 

See the full report at: http://www.llardaro.com  .

Images of Rhode Island's Economic Management

Yesterday I gave a presentation to SBANE in Warwick. Following the presentation I was asked to make two of the images I used available to other persons, which is the purpose of this post. While these images are satirical, unfortunately for Rhode Island, they embody more than a modicum of truth in characterizing Rhode Island's approach to economic matters. Click on these to enlarge them.

#1: The "State of the Art" for Long-Term Planning in Rhode Island

#2: Rhode Island's Culture of Redundancy permeates all levels of government. This has generated huge fixed costs for RI government to manage. Ultimately the result has been for fix costs to play far too large a role in decision making here (partial explanation for image #1 above)

Sad but true!

These highlight important contributors to what I have referred to for years now as Rhode Island's ENDOGENOUS MEDIOCRITY. Here's the link to a ProJo article I wrote about this back in 2009.

Current Conditions Index: September 2012

Below is an abbreviated version of the September Current Conditions Index report. The full report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on my web site: http://www.llardaro.com .

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The third quarter ended on a bit of a sour note. While Rhode Island’s economy remained in a recovery the magnitude of which almost nobody in this state seems to fully comprehend, the pace of that recovery tapered off a bit in September following a very strong August. In fact, over the past six months, Rhode Island’s economy has apparently been unable to sustain and extend the momentum from months with very strong performances — these have consistently been followed by months with more moderate paces. So, while on average, underlying strength here has been sustained, throughout the past six months a frustrating pattern has emerged where faster-growth months are followed by slower growth the next month.

This pattern can either be good news or bad news as the US faces the dreaded “fiscal cliff” as we move towards December 31. Should our state’s recent “stop and go” pattern of more rapid economic growth move more consistently toward “go,” we will have a better margin of error should the US fall off the fiscal cliff. Make no mistake — we too would quickly be dragged down along with the US. Should the “stop” pattern come to dominate, obviously we would find our state closer to stall speed even prior to year end.

Either way, the effects of the possibility of the fiscal cliff have already begun to adversely affect businesses. Uncertainty surrounding the ultimate outcome has hindered their ability to plan for the future, resulting in their postponing investments in both physical capacity and hiring. Resolution of the fiscal cliff will also involve fiscal policy lags, so the ultimate impact of the changes that emerge will occur throughout the first half of 2013. 

For September, six of the twelve CCI indicators showed improvement, giving a monthly CCI value of 50 using the “official” data that we know is flawed. Based on my simulations, the more correct CCI value for September is 58. In spite of the CCI’s decline from August, there is still positive momentum occurring. Of the five non-survey-based indicators, those that don’t suffer from the flaws currently plaguing the “official” labor market data, three showed improvement in September versus five last month. However, one of those indicators, Retail Sales, had a very difficult “comp” to beat from a year ago, so its decline this month should not be construed as  a reflection of weakness. 

So, what do we actually know about Rhode Island’s September   economic performance? Rhode Island’s recovery is now 31 months old. Looking at the non-survey based indicators, even though Retail Sales fell by 2.4 percent in September, it remains surprisingly strong, having risen for ten of the past twelve months. US Consumer Sentiment once again surged by over 30 percent, helped by recent stock market momentum and actions by the Fed. 

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See the full report at: http://www.llardaro.com  .

Current Conditions Index: August 2012

Below is an abbreviated version of the August Current Conditions Index report. The full report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on my web site: http://www.llardaro.com . 

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Up until last month, it appeared that Rhode Island’s economy had already seen the long awaited acceleration in activity come and go. Clearly, we improved at the end of 2011, which provided us with momentum through the first quarter of 2012. Then, this  economic momentum began to slow, placing us in the situation with higher levels of many indicators, but their overall  rate of growth was decelerating, a possibility that could potentially move our state’s economy to stall speed at some point in the future. But the August results show some real strength and quite possibly a re-acceleration in Rhode Island’s economic momentum moving forward. So, any discussion of the potential for reaching “stall speed” should be put on the backburner at this point.

For August, eight of the twelve CCI indicators showed improvement, giving a monthly CCI value of 67 using the “official” data that we know is flawed. Based on my simulations, the more correct CCI value for August is 75 (or possibly 83, but that’s too close a call). What I find most encouraging for August is the fact that all of the non-survey based indicators, which don’t suffer from the flaws currently plaguing most of the labor market data, showed significant improvement, something that doesn’t occur very often enough here.

Ironically, the “official” labor market data continue to show an economy that fell off a cliff about a year ago, with payroll employment now declining on a year-over-year basis for twelve of the last thirteen months. Let me renew my challenge to anyone using that data to conclude anything other than the existence of a double-dip recession here. Ironically, though, the “official” labor market data, which typically become more negative starting around this time of year are becoming less so, indicating that the measurement error might now have changed direction. Go figure!

So, the potential re-acceleration reflected in the August data may be showing that Rhode Island’s economy is gaining some momentum just as the US economy is. For both, this is occurring as Europe remains mired in recession and Asian growth has slowed. Monetary policy lags (6-12 months) preclude recent monetary changes by the Fed and ECB from directly causing this momentum, other than positively influencing confidence and investor appetite for risk.

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See the full report at: http://www.llardaro.com  .

Current Conditions Index Report: July 2012

Below is an abbreviated version of the July Current Conditions Index report. The full report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on my web site: http://www.llardaro.com .

Rhode Island began the third quarter with both good news and bad news. The good news is that its economy actually accelerated at the end of 2011 into mid-2012. While the “official” labor market data continue to show an economy that has fallen off a cliff (I challenge anyone using that data to conclude anything other than RI has entered into a double-dip recession), reality has been very different! The bad news is twofold: first, almost nobody in this state realizes that such improvement in levels and acceleration in the pace of activity occurred (unless they have been following this index and my Blog); second, it is now very clear that the pace of activity Rhode Island attained earlier this year has now moderated significantly. Both the CCI values based on the “official” data (the upper value) and my estimation of the actual numbers (the lower number) show that Rhode Island’s economy has shifted into a lower gear: the “official” number for July fell to 50 while my estimated value declined to barely expanding, at 58.

So, the question now shifts to which indicators will take the proverbial baton and lead any future improvements? While the US economy has slowed, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have taken strong steps to avoid significant downturns in economic activity during the coming months. One outcome of this, a weakening US Dollar, should help to moderate and hopefully offset some of the recent weakness in our state’s manufacturing sector as exports benefit. Unfortunately, there is a rather long lag before dollar depreciation normally translates into significant improvement in US (and Rhode Island) manufacturing.

In light of all of this, what do we actually know about Rhode Island’s current economic performance? As of July, Rhode Island’s tepid recovery that began in February of 2010, now 29 months old, continues to lose momentum, most notably in the areas of manufacturing and retail. For July, Retail Sales fell (by 1.6%), its first decline since last August, following real strength over every month prior to July of this year. Total Manufacturing Hours barely rose in July (+0.1%), as the workweek declined. Of course, we are told that our Manufacturing Wage is still growing at what is likely the most rapid rate on earth (+11.8%).

In spite of this, things here are now and will remain significantly better than what the “official” data show, especially since the flawed “official” data can be expected to begin showing ever-larger employment declines for the rest of this year. Even for July, we were told that payroll employment fell by an eye-opening 7,300 compared to a year ago. A more accurate reading can be obtained by reversing the sign of the “official” payroll change — overall employment is likely around 7,000 higher than what the “official” data show.

See the full report at: http://www.llardaro.com  .

Rhode Island Data for July 2012

I have posted a table with data on a large number of economic variables -- most of which are based on the flawed "official" data for Rhode Island over the past twelve months: http://www.llardaro.com/current_performance.htm . As horrible as the labor market data are, remember these will all be revised higher eventually, so things here are not as bad as the data make things appear.

Early next week I will be releasing the July report for my Current Conditions Index. Stay tuned!

Current Conditions Index: June 2012

Below is an abbreviated version of the June Current Conditions Index report. The full report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on my web site: http://www.llardaro.com .
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Rhode Island ended the second quarter on a rather mixed note. While the “official” labor market data continue to depict an economy that is not only falling off the proverbial “cliff,” but that has entered into a double-dip recession, a news release from the Governor’s office, based on analysis from the Department of Labor and Training, stated that employment here is not actually falling, as the DLT monthly data continue to show, but has actually been increasing for some time now (the release covered the first quarter of 2012). Apparently, this came as a big surprise to much of this state’s media, even though the errors with the “official” labor market data were publicly acknowledged by the DLT months ago and I have been discussing all of this regularly in my Current Conditions Index reports. Recall, this data divergence caused me to begin providing two CCI values each month — one based on the “official” data and the other using my simulated labor market values.   

What do we actually know overall about Rhode Island’s current economic performance? Rhode Island’s economy continues to be in a tepid recovery that began in February of 2010, now 28 months old. While economic reality here is far better than what the “official” data show, the non-flawed data indicate that this recovery displayed some loss of momentum during the second quarter that will likely continue moving forward. It is important to note, however, that even using the flawed “official” labor market data, the Current Conditions Index never gave a recession signal. Furthermore, based on my simulations (the other CCI values listed), Rhode Island’s economy has been able to sustain some of the momentum it gained during the second half of 2011, although this that momentum bas begun to erode based on the performances of several key individual indicators.  

According to my econometric models, there were three noteworthy but problematic indicator changes in June. First, payroll employment, which has been rising for some time now on a yearly basis (albeit at declining rates) actually declined. Second, this employment weakness translated into an uptick in Rhode Island’s monthly Unemployment Rate from my projection of a 10.7 percent rate in May to 10.8 percent in June. Finally, the rate of growth in a very important labor market indicator, Private Service-Producing Employment, has slowed dramatically over the past two months, barely increasing in June.

See the full report at: http://www.llardaro.com  .

Upcoming Employment Data Revisions: "Official" Data Far Off Mark

For several months now, I've been pretty much alone noting how payroll employment in Rhode Island would be revised substantially higher, both in my Current Conditions Index reports and prior Blog entries. Over this period, I have continually stated how employment here is behaving very differently than what the official data were showing. The basis for this dates back to a number of months ago when the Rhode Island Department of Labor and Training (DLT) stated at the most recent Revenue Estimating Conference that employment as of the end of 2011 had not been declining, but actually rising. Based on this, I dusted off my econometric models and began generating projections of what I believe payroll employment would ultimately be revised to.

This was a very lonely endeavor, as I appear to have been the only person in this state noting that the official data were incorrect and far too pessimistic. So, while everyone continued to say that Rhode Island was on the verge of a recession, something I too had said until I learned of the possible revisions, I tried in vein to note that this was very far off the mark. And, even if we were to eventually fall to a double-dip recession, presumably based on global weakness or national weakness, at least we would have some margin for error.

Today, the DLT and Governor Chafee released a report confirming substantial future upward revisions to our state's payroll employment data. According to this press release:

"A recent analysis of tax data shows that Rhode Island job growth exceeded original estimates for the first quarter of 2012, according to the RI Department of Labor and Training ...  The new estimate for Rhode Island-based jobs as of March 2012 is 464,700 jobs, up 7,000 from earlier numbers reported in April. The earlier estimate indicated that Rhode Island-based jobs had dropped over a year's time by 2,200. However, the new estimate shows that Rhode Island-based jobs had likely increased by 4,800 from March 2011 to March 2012."


This is consistent with what my econometric models had been showing. Ironically, my estimates were a bit too low, as they showed a clear uptrend since October of last year, but to a level below the apparent upward revision. The chart below (click to enlarge) shows the "official" data and my estimates.

Based on this, let me reiterate a few points I have been making over the past several months:

1. Rhode Island is not on the verge of a double-dip recession;
2. Our state's unemployment rate is not the currently-published 10.9%, but lower, based on the higher payroll employment numbers. My models project a 10.7% rate as of May; and
3. As good as these results are, my models agree with the existing data that Rhode Island's labor force has been, and continues to, decline.

So, at this point, let me take the leaders of our state and its media to task for being far too pessimistic about the state of Rhode Island's economy. Think about that for a moment: me, Leonard Lardaro, accusing our leaders and the state's media for being too negative! Ain't that a bitch!!

Let me conclude by stating something that this points to, which I have been saying for far longer than I can remember: Accuracy is far more important than tone!