tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86379808290844590142024-03-13T10:29:44.737-04:00ECONOMICS AND THE RHODE ISLAND ECONOMYA blog devoted to providing my perspectives on the Rhode Island economy that utilizes discussion, tables, graphs, and hyperlinks to illustrate key points and where I come a lot closer to saying what I really think than what I say to the general media. A DISCLAIMER: Everything in and on this Blog is solely attributable to me and bears no connection whatever to either the University of Rhode Island overall or the URI economics department.Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.comBlogger125125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-53000922347732846272014-11-10T12:16:00.004-05:002014-11-10T12:16:52.395-05:00Current Conditions Index: September 2014<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;">This
is an abbreviated version of the September Current Conditions Index report.
The complete report, which includes tables, along with past reports, can be
found on my website: <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/">www.llardaro.com </a>.</span><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">Rhode Island’s economy is on a tear, kind
of. After stumbling somewhat in the second quarter of 2014, the pace of this
recovery picked up noticeably in the third quarter, as the Current Conditions
Index managed to <i>reach and sustain</i> a value of 75 for all three months of
that quarter. This performance is significant for a couple of reasons. First,
and foremost, the August CCI exceeded its year-earlier value, something we
hadn’t witnessed in twelve months. Second, the string of 75 values were the
highest recorded in 2014, outpacing earlier-year values of 50, 58, and 67. The
gray area, however, is that September’s CCI value only matched its value from
last September, failing to extend the string of yearly improvements. But this
is Rhode Island, where nothing economic is ever all that easy. So let me modify
my recent criterion, actually soften it a bit, to apply to Rhode Island’s
current situation: we have now <i>matched or exceeded</i> year-earlier CCI
values for two consecutive months.<span> </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: windowtext;">Our transition from a period where the
current recovery was becoming less broadly based into one where increased
momentum is being sustained thus continues. That is a big deal, especially for
this state. So,<i> </i>as we move into the fourth quarter of 2014, there is a
fairly high probability that our state’s economic performance is not decoupling
from the accelerating national economy after all.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: windowtext;">In September, four of the five leading
indicators contained within the Current Conditions Index improved. The sole
leading indicator that failed to improve was <b>Total Manufacturing Hours</b>,
which measures strength in our manufacturing sector. This indicator fell for
the first time in over a year (-0.3%), following slower growth since June.
While manufacturing employment rose, the length of the workweek fell slightly.
As has been true for some time now, the <b>Manufacturing Wage</b> declined, for
a seventh consecutive time in September, by a bizarre and difficult to believe
6.6 percent. Were the BLS to conduct a direct survey of the <b>Manufacturing
Wage</b> here my guess is that its actual level would be well below their
inflated estimates over the past few years.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: windowtext;">Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span style="color: windowtext;">, which reflects new home construction,
had declined in August by 8.7 percent (year-over-year) after a string of strong
performances. This volatile indicator rose by a mind-boggling 36.7 percent in
September relative to its value last year. So, while the momentum derived from
Rhode Island’s goods-producing sector may be moderating, weakness in
manufacturing is being at least partially offset by strength in housing. </span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: windowtext;">New Claims</span></b><span style="color: windowtext;">, which is a leading labor market
indicator, fell by 7.4 percent in September, breaking a string of two
consecutive double-digit declines. This indicator has now improved for six of
the past seven months, a very healthy sign as we move into the fourth quarter. <b>Employment
Service Jobs</b>, which includes temporary employment, and is a prerequisite to
employment growth, rose for the third consecutive month (+2.3%). Its rate of
growth has been increasing over this three-month stretch, another positive sign
as we move forward. Finally, <b>US Consumer Sentiment</b> rose in September
(+8.7%), its second increase following a string of three consecutive declines. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span></span></span></span></div>
Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-49601574139351128182014-10-13T17:44:00.001-04:002014-10-13T17:44:31.525-04:00Current Conditions Index: August 2014<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">This
is an abbreviated version of the August Current Conditions Index report.
The complete report, which includes tables, along with past reports, can be
found on my website: <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/">www.llardaro.com </a>.</span><br />
<span style="color: windowtext;"> </span>
</span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
<span style="color: windowtext;"> -----------------------------------------------------</span></span></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">August will turn out to be the most
significant month thus far in 2014 for two reasons. First, in August, Rhode
Island was able to sustain the improved momentum we witnessed in July, as the
Current Conditions Index matched its July value of 75, which had been its
highest thus far in 2014. <i>Second, and most importantly, August brought with
it the one “signal” we were sorely in need of this year: after a string of
twelve consecutive months where the CCI had failed to beat its year-earlier
values, at long last, the CCI for August of this year exceeded its value from
last August.</i> So, the major negative related to consecutive disappointments
in our state’s economic performance relative to a year ago has ended at twelve.
The implication of both of these factors is critical: we appear to have
transitioned from a period where the current recovery was becoming less broadly
based into one where economic momentum is increasing. That, as the saying goes,
is a big deal<span style="color: windowtext;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">!</span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A</span></span>long with this good news it is important
to keep in mind the central role that our goods-producing sector has played:
both housing and manufacturing have continued to move well beyond their
cyclical troughs, helping us to sustain our fluctuating cyclical momentum. <i>So,
as Rhode Island moves farther into the second half of 2014, our state’s
economic performance might not have decoupled from the accelerating national
economy after all</i>. Stay tuned!</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
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<span style="color: windowtext;">In August, four of the five leading
indicators contained within the Current Conditions Index improved. The one
leading indicator that failed to improve, <b>Single-Unit Permits</b>, which
reflects new home construction, had previously turned in a string of strong
performances. This volatile indicator declined by 8.6 percent in August
relative to its value last year.</span></div>
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<b><span style="color: windowtext;">Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span style="color: windowtext;">, which measures strength in our
manufacturing sector, rose once again in August (+1.1%), but August growth was
substantially slower than it was in July, as manufacturing employment rose but
the length of the workweek fell slightly. As has been true for some time now,
the <b>Manufacturing Wage</b> declined, for a sixth consecutive time in August,
by a difficult to believe 4.6 percent. </span></div>
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<b><span style="color: windowtext;">New Claims</span></b><span style="color: windowtext;">, which is a leading labor market
indicator, fell at a double-digit rate (-20.5%) for the second consecutive
month, raising the likelihood that this indicator will resume a downward trend.
<b>Employment Service Jobs</b>, which includes temporary employment, and is a
prerequisite to employment growth, rose for the second time since last November
(+2.2%), growing at almost twice the July rate.
Finally, <b>US Consumer Sentiment</b> rose in August (+0.2%), ending a
string of three consecutive declines. </span></div>
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</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span>Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-32850244239297667582014-09-10T17:05:00.003-04:002014-09-10T17:05:46.653-04:00Current Conditions Index: July 2014<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><span><span><span style="color: windowtext;">This
is an abbreviated version of the July Current Conditions Index report.
The complete report, which includes tables, along with past reports, can be
found on my website: <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/">www.llardaro.com </a>.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><span><span><span style="color: windowtext;"> </span></span>
</span>
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<span><span style="color: windowtext;"> -----------------------------------------------------</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">As Rhode Island moves into the third
quarter, it appears to have left the disappointing performance from the prior
quarter behind - at least for now. The July Current Conditions Index jumped
from its neutral value of 50 in June all the way to 75 for July, as nine of the
twelve CCI indicators improved. Not only does this improvement come as welcome
news for Rhode Island, the increase from June was somewhat expected. I noted
last month that the two CCI indicators whose performance put a “nail in the
coffin” for June’s CCI, </span><b><span>Benefit Exhaustions</span></b><span> and </span><b><span>New Claims</span></b><span>, had
displayed bizarre increases that month that were not explainable by any of the
obvious undercurrents in our state’s economy. As expected (with my fingers
crossed), both went from double-digit rises last month (remember we want both
of these to decline) to double-digit declines. So, while it is still accurate
at this point to say that Rhode Island’s overall performance in 2014 has
been<span> </span>disappointing, the July CCI provides
us with a potential glimmer of hope that perhaps things here are beginning to
strengthen after all as we move through the second half of 2014. Before we get
carried away, it must be noted that this July’s CCI reading of 75, while a
marked improvement over June, was still below the reading for last July,
marking the twelfth consecutive month where the CCI has failed to beat its
year-earlier value. I can certainly think of happier one-year anniversaries! </span><i><span>So, as
Rhode Island moves into the last half of 2014 the most pressing issue continues
to be whether Rhode Island’s economic performance will ultimately decouple from
the accelerating national economy</span></i><span>.</span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;">In July, four of the five leading
indicators contained within the Current Conditions Index improved, most doing
so at healthy rates. </span><b><span>Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span>, which reflect new home
construction, turned in a very strong performance for July, rising by 26.3
percent relative to its value last July. </span><b><span>Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span>, which
measures strength in our manufacturing sector, rose sharply again in June
(+3.6%), as both the length of the workweek and manufacturing employment
displayed significant increases. Oddly, in spite of such strong and sustained
manufacturing momentum, the </span><b><span>Manufacturing Wage</span></b><span> actually declined for a fifth consecutive time in July, by 4.3
percent.</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;">Two of the leading indicators that failed
to improve last month did considerably better in July. </span><b><span>New Claims</span></b><span>, which
is a leading labor market indicator, fell at a double-digit rate (-17.2%) after
inexplicably rising at a double-digit rate in June, making it more likely that
this indicator will resume a downtrend. </span><b><span>Employment Service Jobs</span></b><span>, which
includes temporary employment, and is a prerequisite to employment growth, rose
for the first time since last November (+1.2%), halting a streak of seven
consecutive declines. In spite of this good news for July, I continue to view
changes in this indicator somewhat suspiciously. The sole leading indicator
that failed to improve this month was </span><b><span>US Consumer Sentiment</span></b><span>, which
declined for the third consecutive month (-4.3%) following a string of five
consecutive increases. </span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span>Retail
Sales</span></b><span> remained
strong in July, rising by 3.3 percent compared to a year ago. This indicator
has now improved for seven of the last nine months. </span><b><span>Private
Service-Producing Employment</span></b><span> rose by 2.1 percent in July, its
strongest rate of growth in over a year. As has been the case for quite some
time now, </span><b><span>Government Employment</span></b><span> fell once again, declining in July
by 0.7 percent versus a year ago. </span><b><span>Benefit Exhaustions</span></b><span>, which
reflects longer-term unemployment, reversed its strange double-digit increase
of last month, falling by 30.2 percent relative to a year ago. July was the
third double-digit improvement for this indicator in the last four months.</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
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table.MsoNormalTable
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mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
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mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-right:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:8.0pt;
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Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-74467425717715867602014-08-12T11:51:00.000-04:002014-08-12T11:51:16.030-04:00Current Conditions Index report: June 2014<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span><span style="color: windowtext;">This
is an abbreviated version of the June Current Conditions Index report.
The complete report, which includes tables, along with past reports, can be
found on my website: <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/">www.llardaro.com </a>.</span></span>
</span>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: windowtext;">Just when it appeared that Rhode Island’s
economy was beginning to re-accelerate, bringing back memories of late 2012,
along comes June’s data that abruptly shatters that notion and then some. The
June Current Conditions Index value fell all the way back to its neutral value
of 50, as only six of the twelve CCI indicators improved. Worse yet, April’s
value that had been 58 has been revised down to 50 as well. Not exactly life in
the fast lane!</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">To say that Rhode Island’s overall
performance in 2014 has been somewhat disappointing has now become an
understatement. Not only did we never get the post-winter bounce we were hoping
for, even the good-weather months are proving to be very disappointing. What I
find perplexing about Rhode Island’s most recent performance is that in spite
of an improving national economy, we continue to flounder.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="color: windowtext;">Perhaps the most pressing issue now is
whether Rhode Island has begun to decouple from the accelerating national
economy</span></i><span style="color: windowtext;">.
Apparently, Rhode Island’s negatives are finally catching up to its positives,
increasingly diminishing overall momentum. This is part of the reason why Rhode
Island has been unable to reduce its <b>Unemployment Rate</b> to a level that
would end its prolonged stretch as the state with the highest jobless rate.
Think about this for a moment - not only does Rhode Island lag in terms of its
relative performance, if recent trends continue, it will begin to lag in terms
of its absolute performance as well. I now characterize Rhode Island’s
performance as moving from precarious to tenuous, with June marking the
eleventh consecutive month where the CCI has failed to beat its year-earlier
value.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">For June, only two of the five leading
indicators contained within the Current Conditions Index improved, although
both did so at healthy rates. <b>Single-Unit Permits</b>, which reflect new
home construction, turned in yet another strong performance in June, rising by
23.7 percent relative to last June. <b>Total Manufacturing Hours</b>, which
measures strength in our manufacturing sector, rose sharply again in June
(+4.3%), as both the length of the workweek rose and manufacturing employment
increased. Oddly, in spite of this continuing manufacturing momentum, the <b>Manufacturing
Wage</b> actually declined for a fourth consecutive time in June, by 2.3
percent.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="color: windowtext;">US Consumer Sentiment</span></b><span style="color: windowtext;"> fell for the second consecutive month
(-1.6%) following a string of five consecutive increases. <b>Employment Service
Jobs</b>, which includes temporary employment, and is a prerequisite to
employment growth, declined sharply in June, by 4.1 percent, its seventh
consecutive decline. I continue to view changes in this indicator somewhat
suspiciously. The biggest surprises for June, which contributed a great deal to
the CCI’s neutral value of 50, were increases in both <b>New Claims</b> for
Unemployment Insurance, the timeliest measure of layoffs, and <b>Benefit
Exhaustions</b>, which reflects longer-term unemployment. Of these, <b>New
Claims</b>, which is a leading indicator, rose at an alarming rate, 21.8
percent relative to last June. It is not clear whether the recent improvements
in this indicator will prove to be sustainable. <b>Benefit Exhaustions </b>increased
by 10 percent relative to a year ago, following two consecutive months of
double-digit improvement. </span></span></span></div>
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Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-18194091738128478502014-07-18T11:21:00.003-04:002014-07-18T11:21:49.227-04:00Curent Conditions Index: May 2014<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;">This
is an abbreviated version of the May Current Conditions Index report.
The complete report, which includes tables, along with past reports, can be
found on my website: <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/">www.llardaro.com </a>.</span></span></span>
</span></span>
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</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">Rhode Island’s economy bounced back a bit
from its earlier-year woes in May. Following a string of three consecutive 58
values, the Current Conditions Index rose to 67 in May, matching its January
value. While Rhode Island’s overall performance in 2014 has been somewhat
disappointing, perhaps the May bounce will turn out to be the beginning of a
prolonged period of stronger economic activity driven in large part by an
improving national economy. Clearly, there have been a number of positives
during the first part of this year, most notably improvements in both payroll
and resident employment, and along with the latter, a full percentage point
decline in our state’s <b>Unemployment Rate</b>. Yet in spite of this good
news, Rhode Island’s performance continues to lag in terms of several metrics,
the most obvious being the #1 national ranking of our state’s jobless rate that
has been sustained for far too long a period. So, while our state’s <i>absolute</i>
economic performance continues to improve, its <i>relative</i> performance
remains problematic. Sadly, this trend hardly something new. I will continue to
describe the overall economic performance of Rhode Island’s economy as
precarious, citing the fact that May was the tenth consecutive month where the
CCI failed to improve relative to its year-earlier value.<span> </span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">For May, only three of the five leading
indicators contained within the Current Conditions Index improved, but two of
those did so at healthy rates. Fortunately, the two that failed to improve do
not necessarily signal any real weakness in our state’s economy or the
possibility of a transition to slower growth. <b>US Consumer Sentiment</b> fell
by 3.1 percent in May, ending a string of five consecutive increases. This
decline very likely reflected stock market performance that has since reversed.
<b>Employment Service Jobs</b>, which includes temporary employment, and is a
prerequisite to employment growth, fell by another 1.1 percent in May, its
sixth consecutive decline. Suffice it to say that I continue to view changes in
this indicator somewhat suspiciously.</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="color: windowtext;">Single-Unit Permits</span></b></span></span><span style="color: windowtext;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">, which reflect new home construction, and
was adversely impacted by winter weather earlier in the year, turned in a
strong performance in May, rising by 9 percent relative to last May. <b>Total
Manufacturing Hours</b>, which measures strength in our manufacturing sector,
rose sharply again in May (+3.1%), as both the length of the workweek rose and
manufacturing employment increased by 900. Oddly, in spite of this
manufacturing momentum, the <b>Manufacturing Wage</b> actually declined for a
third time in May, by 2.3 percent. <b>New Claims</b> for Unemployment
Insurance, the timeliest measure of layoffs, declined, albeit slowly in May,
for a third consecutive month and sixth time in the last seven months. In spite
of its recent improvements, it is not yet clear whether this indicator has
resumed the longer-term downtrend that will be critical to our sustaining May’s
overall momentum in the coming months.</span></span> </span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span>Retail Sales</span></b><span> remained strong in May,
rising by just under 5 percent compared to a year ago. This indicator has now
improved for eleven of the last twelve months. Based on its recent performance,
it is one of the strongest CCI indicators. <b>Benefit Exhaustions</b>, which
reflects longer-term unemployment, improved at a double-digit rate in May
(-13.1%), registering its second consecutive double-digit improvement.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span> </span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span></span></span></span></div>
Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-58987317884534905232014-06-12T20:11:00.003-04:002014-06-12T20:11:41.976-04:00Current Conditions Index: April 2014<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;">This
is an abbreviated version of the April Current Conditions Index report.
The complete report, which includes tables, along with past reports, can be
found on my website: <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/">www.llardaro.com </a>.</span></span></span></span>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">The non-event bounce back from the adverse
effects of the harsh February weather we witnessed in March apparently
continued into April. What a way to begin the new quarter! The April Current
Conditions Index remained stuck at its same value since February, 58. This
extends the string of consecutive months where the CCI has failed to improve
relative to its year-earlier value to nine. Looking at the CCI for all of 2014,
one has to conclude that this year is turning out to be a real disappointment.
If I had to summarize Rhode Island’s current economic performance with one
word, that word would be precarious.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;"></span>This should not be viewed as
indicating that there are no positive forces at work here. Look at how much
payroll employment has been rising: for March, Rhode Island added 7,600 jobs
while only losing 900, for a net change of 6,700. Clearly, the pace of job
growth has accelerated here of late while job loss has diminished to levels far
below what we experienced during The Great Recession. Yet in spite of this, and
recent healthy declines in our state’s </span><b><span>Unemployment Rate</span></b><span>, we
remain well below our prior employment peak of December of 2006 and our jobless
rate is still the highest in the nation. Worse yet, Rhode Island’s image has
suffered nationally: we have now come to be known as “the unemployment rate
state.” Not only can we do better than this, we have to! The clock continues to
run. Some promising legislative changes have emerged from the Rhode Island
House. Let’s hope the Senate follows suit.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;">For April, only three of the five leading
indicators contained within the Current Conditions Index improved, some by
healthy rates.<span> </span>The two that failed to
improve do not signal any real weakness or transition to noticeably slower
growth. </span><b><span>Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span>, which reflect new home
construction, the indicator most adversely impacted by winter weather, stumbled
in April, declining by 4.5 percent after bouncing back with a healthy 20.2
percent increase in March. </span><b><span>Employment Service Jobs</span></b><span>, which includes temporary
employment, and is a prerequisite to employment growth, fell 1.0 percent in
April, its fifth consecutive decline. Let’s just say I continue to view changes
in this indicator suspiciously.</span></span></span></span></div>
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<b><span><span>New Claims</span></span></b><span><span> for Unemployment Insurance, the
timeliest measure of layoffs, declined for the second consecutive month and
fifth time in the last seven months. In spite of these recent improvements, it
is not yet clear whether this indicator has resumed the longer-term downtrend
that will be needed if we are to improve activity levels significantly in
coming months. </span><b><span>Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span>, which measures strength in our
manufacturing sector, rose sharply in April (+4.0%), as the workweek rose by a
full hour and manufacturing employment increased by 600. It was odd to see that
in spite of this manufacturing momentum, the </span><b><span>Manufacturing Wage</span></b><span> actually
fell by 1.9 percent in April.<span> </span>Finally, </span><b><span>US
Consumer Sentiment</span></b><span> rose by 10 percent in April, its fifth increase following three
consecutive months of declines.</span></span></span></span></div>
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Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-51311908107011824092014-05-13T17:23:00.000-04:002014-05-13T17:23:39.754-04:00Current Conditions Index: March 2014<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: windowtext;">This is an abbreviated version of the March Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables, along with past reports, can be found on my website: <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/">www.llardaro.com </a>.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: windowtext;"> -----------------------------------------------------</span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: windowtext;">The much anticipated bounce back from the
adverse effects of the harsh February weather turned out to be a non-event.
While the indicators most obviously impacted by the weather improved as
expected, several other indicators were far less accommodating, leaving the
March Current Conditions Index stuck at the same value it attained in February,
58. Unfortunately, this extended the string of consecutive months where the CCI
has failed to improve relative to its year-earlier value to eight.</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><span style="color: windowtext;"></span>New home construction, which came
to a virtual standstill last month, returned to a more reasonable level. And </span><b><span>Retail
Sales</span></b><span>, which should have felt weather effects, remained strong for both
February and March. As we move farther beyond the uncertainties produced by
winter weather, the underlying performance of Rhode Island’s economy is
becoming more apparent. While the overall picture that emerges is mixed, we
appear to have entered a period where our negatives are beginning to expand,
increasingly offsetting the beneficial effects of the parts of our state’s
economy that continue to exhibit strength. The result will be a period of yet
slower growth overall which will at times mask some or a great deal of the
positive momentum that exists within our state. While this is hardly the
outcome we wanted to observe, it indicates that we can expect the present
recovery to become even less broadly based should these trends persist. The
good news, which is becoming more difficult to find, is that an accelerating
rate of growth for the national economy will clearly benefit Rhode Island as we
move through the remainder of 2014. How much we benefit, however, is a very
different question. We may well see improvements in absolute terms (like the
recent decline in our </span><b><span>Unemployment Rate</span></b><span>), but relative to other states, we will continue to lag (we remained
#1 for joblessness in March).<span> </span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">
<span>For March, four of the five leading
indicators contained within the Current Conditions Index improved, some by
healthy rates. </span><b><span>Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span>, which reflect new home
construction, the indicator most adversely impacted by winter weather last
month, bounced back with a 20.1 percent increase in March (returning to around
70 permits per month). </span><b><span>New Claims</span></b><span> for Unemployment Insurance, is the timeliest measure of layoffs, also
turned in a strong performance, falling by 7.1 percent relative to last March.
At present, it is not clear whether this indicator will resume its previous
downtrend. Should it fail to, it would impart a decidedly negative bias to the
momentum that exists at present. </span><b><span>Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span>, which
measures strength in our manufacturing sector, sustained its strength in March
(+2.3%), as a rise in employment offset the negative effect of a slight decline
in the length of the workweek. </span><b><span>US Consumer Sentiment</span></b><span> rose by
only 1.6 percent, but this was its fourth increase following three consecutive
months of declines. The final leading indicator, </span><b><span>Employment
Service Jobs</span></b><span>, which includes temporary employment and is a prerequisite to
employment growth, fell<span> </span>1.3 percent in
March, its fourth consecutive decline. Let’s just say I continue to view
changes in this indicator suspiciously.</span></span></span>Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-86237108980808421772014-04-15T14:13:00.001-04:002014-04-15T14:13:19.019-04:00 Current Conditions Index: February 2014<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is an abbreviated version of the February Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables, along with past reports, can be found at my website: </span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">www.llardaro.com</span></a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">.</span><br />
<br />
-----------------------<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The rugged winter weather that continued
into February clearly took its toll on Rhode Island’s overall economic
performance, although there were still </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">a number of areas where Rhode Island
did well.</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> The most obvious tragedy of the weather was new home construction,
which was almost nonexistent in February. Yet at the same time, both </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Retail
Sales</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> and </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">US Consumer Sentiment</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> turned in very strong performances.
The Current Conditions Index for February was 58, a decline from its
(downwardly revised) value in January of 67, and below the February 2013 value,
which was also 67. However, I have scored the CCI for February with an asterisk
— guilty with an explanation: were it not for the recorded plunge in </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit
Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> (to 26 units for the entire state), the value of the CCI would likely
have been 67, matching its values for last month and one year ago.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="-ms-text-kashida-space: 50%; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Yet even if that change had occurred, the
CCI still would have failed to improve relative to its year-earlier value for a
seventh consecutive month and eighth time in the last nine months. Clearly,
these “misses” are not all, nor mostly, attributable to the weather over the
past several months, so some slowing of our state’s overall cyclical momentum
is continuing. The upside to this, if there is one, is that payroll employment
has been rising substantially more than we were led to believe with the data
prior to the most recent rebenchmarking, and we just received word that
December’s employment number will be revised even higher. I guess this is Rhode
Island’s version of life in the fast lane! </span><o:p></o:p></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="-ms-text-kashida-space: 50%; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">For February, two of the CCI’s five leading
indicators improved, while two failed to improve, and the fifth was highly
weather distorted. Looking first at those that failed to improve, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Employment
Service Jobs</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which includes temporary employment and is a prerequisite to
employment growth, fell by 1.3 percent in February, its third consecutive
decline. However, based on the recent contradictory rebenchmarking changes to
this indicator, the only thing I feel confident in concluding is that this
indicator either increased, decreased, or remained unchanged in February. The
other leading indicator that failed to improve, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">New Claims</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> for
Unemployment Insurance, is the timeliest measure of layoffs. For February, it
rose by 11.5 percent compared to a year ago, its second failure to improve
since last August. The downtrend in this indictor since July of 2013 may well
have ended, which would be particularly bad news for our state. Finally,</span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">
Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which was highly distorted by the weather, fell by 57.1 percent
relative to a year ago. In spite of this, Rhode Island is continuing to move
beyond its cyclical trough in new home construction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">US
Consumer Sentiment</span></span></b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> rose by
5.2 percent in February, its third increase following three consecutive months
of declines. The final leading indicator, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which
measures strength in our manufacturing sector, resumed strong growth in
February (+3.0%), boosted by increases in both the workweek and employment.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span><br />Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-26215305374340039162014-03-18T10:04:00.000-04:002014-03-18T10:04:06.313-04:00Current Conditions Index: January 2014<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Below is a partial version of the January 2014 Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables and historical data, can be found on my web site: </span></span></span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/"><span style="color: #d52a33;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">www.llardaro.com</span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> .</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">----------------</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br />
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The new year began with some happy news
concerning Rhode Island employment: payroll employment was revised higher by
3,100 relative to the original estimate. But this is Rhode Island, where behind
every silver lining lurks a gray cloud: our jobless rate, which was already
either the highest or among the highest in the country, was also revised - even
higher. So, there is some cause for celebration in the rebenchmarked payroll
data, but the household survey data continues to paint a very discouraging
picture as far as how this recovery is progressing.<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">How did Rhode Island’s cyclical economic
momentum fare in light of the revised data? The Current Conditions Index, which
was designed for this very purpose, also showed a continuation of the good news
- bad news situation we have remained mired in for some time now. First, the
good news: in light of the newly released labor market data, the CCI was
revised higher for four months in 2013 (April, June, September, and November).
And, for January, the CCI rose from the (downwardly revised) December value of
58 to 75, as nine of twelve indicators improved. Now for the bad news: the CCI
was only revised lower for two months in 2013 (May and December), but the CCI
values based on the new data show that the CCI has now failed to improve
relative to its year-earlier value for six consecutive months and seven of the
last eight months. So, while the values of several CCI indicators were revised
higher, these upward revisions were not sufficient to permit us to exceed the
favorable CCI values we experienced at the end of 2012 and into January of
2013. It should be noted though, that there were several ties (like this
month).<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
</span><br />
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For January, two of the CCI’s five leading
indicators failed to improve. The first of these, <b>Employment Service Jobs</b>,
includes temporary employment, which is a prerequisite to employment growth. It
fell by 2.4 percent in January, which was its second consecutive decline.
Continuation of its recent uptrend is now questionable as its values have
apparently plateaued around 9,000 for the better part of a year. The other
indicator, <b>New Claims</b> for Unemployment Insurance, the timeliest measure
of layoffs, rose by 1.3 percent in January, its first failure to improve since
last August. The downtrend in this indictor since July of 2013 may be ending.
It will be necessary to observe its behavior over the next several months
before any confirmation is possible, however.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Single-Unit Permits</b> managed to improve by 5.5 percent in
January relative to its value one year ago, although weather-related factors
make interpreting changes in this indicator very difficult. In spite of this,
it is safe to conclude that Rhode Island is continuing to move beyond its
cyclical trough in new home construction. <b>US Consumer Sentiment</b> rose at
a double-digit rate in January (+10.1%), its second increase following three
consecutive months of declines. Expect its uptrend to continue as long as the
stock market improves. The final leading indicator, <b>Total Manufacturing
Hours</b>, which measures strength in our manufacturing sector, barely rose in
January (+0.2%), as a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>decline in the
workweek almost offset the job gains that occurred. At least part of the
decline in hours may be weather related.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span>Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-47529843709887645912014-02-11T20:55:00.000-05:002014-02-11T20:55:01.611-05:00Current Conditions Index: December 2013<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Below is a partial version of the December Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables and historical data, can be found on my web site: </span></span></span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/"><span style="color: #d52a33;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">www.llardaro.com</span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> .</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">----------------</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As the fourth quarter and 2013 came to an
end, Rhode Island’s economic performance continued as it had for a while - we
are moving forward, albeit at a not very encouraging speed. The news overall
continued to be mixe</span></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">d:</span> the good news was that the Current Conditions Index for December
rose slightly to 75 from its November value of 67. And, within December’s
performance, there were some positive results, mainly that almost all of the
CCI’s leading economic indicator</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">s improved. That bodes well as we move
into 2014. The bad news pertains to the continuation of a disturbing pattern:
for a fifth consecutive month, and the sixth time in seven months, the CCI
failed to exceed its year-earlier value. Hopefully, since the CCI values in
early 2013 were not as strong as they had been </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">in late 2012, we will soon find
ourselves exceeding year-earlier values again in the first part of 2014. That
is a very real possibility if the US economy continues to strengthen. We’ll
just have to keep our finger</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">s crossed. Once we begin to exceed prior-year values this will be the
signal that the recovery is once again becoming more broadly based and that our
momentum is accelerating. As I noted last month, the ultimate test of how
robust </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Rhode Island’s recovery proves to be will be defined by our ability to
</span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">accelerate</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> from current and past rates of growth. We can only hope that our
state’s continuing failure to meaningfully redefine itself for the information
age (other than renaming the EDC) won’t pose too many obstacles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For December, four of the CCI’s five
leading indicators improved. The other,</span> </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, barely
failed to improve, declining 1.4 percent from a year ago. While this was only
its third non-improvement in over a year, this month’s result may well be more
of a reflection of December’s weat</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">her than of any underlying economic
weakness in our state’s housing sector. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><b><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">US Consumer Sentiment</span></span></b></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> rose sharply (+12.9%) in December
following three consecutive months of declines. It has remained in an uptrend
that we can expect to continue as long as the stock market continues to
improve.</span> </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Employment Service Jobs</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which includes temporary
employment, a prerequisite to overall employment growth, rose by 2.0 percent in
December following a decline last month. While it remains in an uptrend, it
appears quite likely that its values are levelling off around 9,000, assuming
that rebenchmarking next month doesn</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">’t change this pattern. Should
layoffs begin to rise, this will pose a number of problems to our economic
momentum as we move into 2014. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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</span><br />
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">All of the remaining leading indicators
improved in December. </span></span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">New Claims</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> for Unemployment Insurance, the timeliest measure of layoffs,
improved significantly in December, falling by 21.8 percent, its second
consecutive double-digit decline. While this indicator is </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">not</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> yet in a
well-defined downtrend, the most recent four months indicate that this may be
changing. The final leading indicator, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which
measures strength in our manufacturing sector, rose by a very healthy 3.5
percent in December, driven mainly by a large increase in the length of the
workweek. This indicator has now improved for eleven of the last thirteen
months. Combined with the recent behavior of </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, it is
clear that Rhode Island’s goods-producing sector is far from dead.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span> </span><br />
</span>Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-19014147146969024882014-01-13T20:24:00.001-05:002014-01-13T20:24:13.252-05:00Current Conditions Index: November 2013
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Below is a partial version of the November Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables and historical data, can be found on my web site: </span></span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/"><span style="color: #d52a33;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">www.llardaro.com</span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> .</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">------------------</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The fourth quarter isn’t playing out as
well for Rhode Island as we might have hoped. For November, our state’s positive
but not exactly stunning momentum continued. As has been true for some time
now, there was both good news and bad news concerning Rhode Island’s economic
performance. First, the good news (of sorts): although the Current Conditions
Index for November fell t</span></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">o 67</span> from October’s 75, several key indicators continue to display
hopeful signs for the future months. While three of the CCI’s five leading
indicators improved this month, the two that failed to improve rel</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ative to
last November both faced very difficult comps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The bad news once again emerges when we contrast November’s performance
for this year with that in 2012: for a fourth consecutive month, and the fifth
time in six months, the CCI has failed to exceed its year-earlier value. Sadly,
my earlier suspicion that a pattern of failure to improve on year-earlier
values i</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">s proving to be correct. Let’s hope this doesn’t continue for much
longer. Since the CCI’s readings in early 2013 were not terribly strong, we
might find ourselves once again exceeding year-earlier va</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">lues in
just a few months. At any rate, what we are continuing to witness is a slowing </span><i><u><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">in our
rate of growth</span></u></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> relative to the end of last year. This, by itself, is discouraging
since our state’s current rate of growth is not exactly going to cause
whiplash. The ultimate test of how robust this recovery proves to be will be
defined by our ability to </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">accelerate</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> from current rates of growth. While more rapid national growth will
clearly help with this, Rhode Island’s failure to meaningfully redefine itself
for the information age (other than renaming the EDC</span></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">) has
left our state’s obstacles to more rapid growth, most notably our
non-competitive tax and cost structure, intact.</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><br />
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As stated earlier, for November, three of
the CCI’s five leading indicators improved. The other two were unable to escape
the effects of very difficult “comps” from a year ago.</span> </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">US
Consumer Sentiment</span></b></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> fell sharply (-9.4%), in part because of a 29 percent rise one year
ago. November marked</span> the third consecutive decline for </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Sentiment</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. It
remains in an uptrend at present that will likely continue as long as the stock
market continues to rise. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Employment Service Jobs</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which includes temporary
employment, a prerequisite to overall employment growth, fell for only the
second time in over a year, declining by 1.3 percent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Should its uptrend reverse, this would pose
problems as we move into 2014. One potentially hopeful thought: these recent d</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">eclines
might be revised away with the upcoming rebenchmarking of the 2013 data.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While our state’s economic momentum continues to slow,
pockets of substantial momentum remain, based on the performances of both the
leading indicators contained in the CCI and several of its non-leading
indicators. Even with these, it will be quite some time before we return to our
prior peak in economic activity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">The remaining leading indicators
improved in November. The recent surge in </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, a
leading indicator of housing, continued, as Permits rose by 30.1 percent
compared to last November, as Rhode Island’s housing sector continued to move
well beyond its recession trough. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">New Claims</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> for
Unemployment Insurance, the most timely measure of layoffs, improved in
November, falling by 26.9 percent. Unlike the leading indicators discussed
earlier, even though this indicator is </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">not</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> in a well-defined downtrend, the
most recent three months indicate that this might be changing. The final
leading indicator, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which measures strength in our
manufacturing sector, rose by 5.6 percent in November, driven mainly by a large
increase in the length of the workweek. This indicator has now improved for
eleven of the last thirteen months.</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span>Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-70951418511258138692013-12-16T10:41:00.002-05:002013-12-16T10:41:46.936-05:00Current Conditions Index: October 2013<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Below is a partial version of the October Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables and historical data, can be found on my web site: </span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/"><span style="color: #d52a33;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">www.llardaro.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> .</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;">------------------</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Rhode Island began the fourth quarter by continuing its
positive, though not exactly stunning, momentum. Once again, there was both
good news and bad news concerning Rhode Island’s economic performance. First,
the good news: the Current Conditions Index rose from 67 (revised down) in
September to 75 in October, as nine of its twelve indicators improved.
Importantly, several of those improvements were quite stunning. The bad good
news emerges when we contrast our state’s performance this year with that in 2012:
for a third consecutive month, and the fourth time in five months, the CCI has
failed to exceed its year-earlier value. I strongly suspect that this will be
the dominant pattern throughout the fourth quarter.</span> <span style="font-family: inherit;">If this conjecture proves
correct, which I believe it will, we will experience a slowing </span></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><u><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">in our
rate of growth</span></u></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> relative to the end of last year. One could argue that the late-2012
acceleration confronts us this year with a difficult “comp,” which is true.
However, as our state’s current rate of growth is not terribly rapid (Rhode
Island’s growth rate in real state GDP for 2012 was only 1.4%), the test of how
robust this recovery will ultimately prove to be will be defined by our ability
to </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">accelerate</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> rather than sustain growth rates comparable to what we observed at
the end of 2012. Fortunately, the US economy is growing more rapidly, which
will clearly benefit Rhode Island. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">One hint of future momentum can be
inferred from the October performance of</span> <span style="font-family: inherit;">the </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">leading</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">
indicators </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">contained in the CCI. For October, four of the five leading indicators
improved in spite of difficult “comps” from a year ago. The only leading
indicator that failed to improve, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">US Consumer Sentiment</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, fell
sharply (-11%), but this was heavily influenced by a one-two punch: the
combination of the government shutdown and its rise of over 37 percent last
October.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While October was the second
consecutive decline for </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Sentiment</span></b></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">, it remains in a well-defined uptrend that will likely continue as
long as the stock market continues to rise.</span> <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So, while our state’s economic momentum appears to be
slowing a bit, substantial momentum remains, based on the performances of both
the leading indicators contained in the CCI and several of its non-leading
indicators. Sadly, this means it will take longer for us to return to our prior
peak in economic activity. Welcome to our world! Our elected officials have yet
to fully grasp that success in a post-manufacturing economy requires consistent
and persistent effort to make improvements to a state’s economy, not merely
waiting for things to “turn around.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">All of the remaining leading indicators
improved in October. The uptrend in</span> </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, a
leading indicator of housing, continued with a vengeance, rising 61.3 percent
relative to last October. Clearly, Rhode Island’s housing sector is continuing
to move well beyond its recession trough. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Employment Service Jobs</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which
includes temporary employment, a prerequisite to overall employment growth,
rose by a healthy 4.2 percent in October. It has declined only once in over a
year and it remains in a clear uptrend. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">New Claims</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> for
Unemployment Insurance, the most timely measure of layoffs, improved in
October, falling by 8.9 percent in spite of a very large decline last year
(-9.8%). Unlike the leading indicators discussed earlier, this indicator is </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">not</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> in a
well-defined downtrend at present. Should it begin to rise, it would threaten
our state’s future momentum, since a trend of rising layoffs would adversely
affect other CCI indicators in coming months, most notably </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Retail
Sales</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. The final leading indicator, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">, which
measures strength in our manufacturing sector, rose by 2.4 percent in October.
This indicator has improved for ten of the last twelve months, something I
never thought I would see again, especially as one of the foundations of our
recovery’s momentum.</span> <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-39839474311599024052013-12-02T16:24:00.000-05:002013-12-02T16:24:12.336-05:00Current Conditions Index: September 2013<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Below is a partial version of the September Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables and historical data, can be found on my web site: </span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/"><span style="color: #d52a33;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">www.llardaro.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> .</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;">------------------</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Rhode Island ended the third quarter on a
fairly positive but mixed note, as there was both good news and bad news about
our state’s performance. First, the good news: the Current Conditions Index
rose from 67 in August to 75 in September, as nine indicators improved overall.
Several of those improvements were very substantial changes. The bad good news
comes when we contrast our state’s performance this year with that last year:
for a second consecutive month, and the third time in four months, the CCI failed
to exceed its year-earlier value. During the fourth quarter, it is not
unreasonable for us to expect to see this pattern repeated every month. This
has been a concern of mine for some time now, and I have written about it in
the last few reports, for if this does come to pass, as is likely, it would
reflect a definite slowdown <i><u>in our rate of growth</u></i> relative to the
end of last year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, in light of
the clear acceleration in the pace of economic activity for Rhode Island as
2012 came to an end, this does not come as much of a surprise. The October CCI
results will be quite interesting, as they will reflect not only the fiscal
drag from Washington, but the effects of the government shutdown as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In light of these uncertainties moving
forward, it is informative to examine the performance of the <i>leading</i>
indicators contained in the CCI. For September, three of the four leading
indicators improved in spite of difficult “comps” from a year ago. The only
leading indicator that failed to improve, <b>US Consumer Sentiment</b>, fell
only slightly (by 0.3%), but this relatively small decline occurred relative to
a rise of over 33 percent last September.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So, as we move into the last quarter of
2013, our state’s momentum may be losing a step or two, but a substantial
amount of momentum remains, as attested to by the performances of both the
leading indicators contained in the CCI and several of its non-leading
indicators. This means we will just have to wait longer to ultimately return to
where our state’s economy was prior to the Great Recession. Our recent rates of
growth applied to the depressed activity levels Rhode Island fell to will
continue to generate relatively small changes in the <i>actual activity <u>levels</u></i>.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">A</span><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">s stated earlier, three of the CCI’s four
leading indicators improved in September. The uptrend in <b>Single-Unit Permits</b>,
a leading indicator of housing, continues, as we have moved well beyond our
recession trough (note: the September Permits value is an estimate as the
government shutdown has caused a delay in its release until next week). <b>US
Consumer Sentiment</b> failed to improve for the first time since January.
However, it had an extremely difficult “comp” from last September. In spite of
this temporary setback, <b>Sentiment</b> remains in a well-established uptrend
that promises to continue as long as the stock market continues to improve. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The remaining leading
indicators are related to the labor market. The first of these, <b>Employment
Service Jobs</b>, which includes temporary employment, a prerequisite to
overall employment growth, rose by a healthy 3.4 percent in September. Its
decline last month was the first in over a year. Like US Consumer Sentiment,
this one-month problem does not threaten its longer-term uptrend, something
that will be important as we move to the last quarter of this year. <b>New
Claims</b> for Unemployment Insurance, the most timely measure of layoffs,
improved in September, falling by 7.9 percent in spite of a very large decline
last year (-25.1%). At present it has no clear trend, which is potentially
problematic since a trend of rising layoffs would adversely affect other CCI
indicators in coming months. The final leading indicator, <b>Total
Manufacturing Hours</b>, which measures strength in our manufacturing sector,
rose by 1.6%.</span></span></div>
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Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-8764169808297033192013-10-23T15:43:00.000-04:002013-10-23T15:43:06.436-04:00Current Conditions Index: August 2013<span style="font-family: inherit;">Below is a partial version of the August Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables and historical data, can be found on my web site: </span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/"><span style="color: #d52a33;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">www.llardaro.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> .</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">As the third quarter progresses, there is
both good news and bad news about the performance of Rhode Island’s economy.
The good news is that the July Current Conditions Index’s value was revised
higher, from 75 to 83. The bad news is that the CCI for August declined to 67,
as only eight of twelve indicators improved relative to their values one year
ago. Furthermore, August was only the second month this year for which the CCI
failed to exceed its year-earlier value (June was the other). My primary concern
moving forward, which I have written about for several months now, is that the
CCI for the remainder of this year will very likely fail to beat last year’s
values, which would reflect a clear slowdown </span><i><u><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">in our
rate of growth</span></u></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> relative to the end of last year. This should not come as a complete
surprise given the clear acceleration in the pace of economic activity for
Rhode Island as 2012 came to an end. Sadly, but not surprisingly, the
combination of fiscal drag from Washington and the government shutdown should
only make these yearly divergences worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">At times like this it is informative to
look at the performance of the </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">leading</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">
indicators </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">contained in the CCI. For August, all four of these had difficult
“comps” from a year ago. Only two, however, were able to improve relative to
those comps. Don’t expect this to be the last time we encounter this
phenomenon. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Let me reiterate an important point that will become
ever-more relevant that is related to the seeming paradox of how our </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">state's
economy </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">can be showing good </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">momentum</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> yet fail to return to where it was </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">in 2006 and 2007</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">.</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> <i><u></u></i></span><i><u><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Current </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">levels of
economic activity depend on </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">both the </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">rates of growth </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">we are experiencing and </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">the prior </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">activity </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">levels
themselves</span></u></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Rhode Island’s economy </span></span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">was extremely hard hit during The Great Recession, so</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">when our
recent rates </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">of growth </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">are </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">applied to </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">these </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">depressed </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">activity </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">level</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">s, we</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">continue to see r</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">elatively small changes in the </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">actual </span><u><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">level</span></u></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> of
economic activity</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">.</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> As our rate of growth is slowing, it will now take even longer to
return to where we were pre-recession. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">As stated earlier, two of the CCI’s four
leading indicators improved in August. The uptrend in </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit
Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, a leading indicator of housing, continues, although this indicator
failed to improve in August (last August its rate of growth was 34%). In spite
of this setback, Permits have now settled into a range of 70+ each month. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">US
Consumer Sentiment</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> improved for the seventh consecutive month in August, rising 10.7
percent. Expect to see it began to weaken, given our nation’s fiscal
dysfunction. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">The remaining leading indicators are
related to the labor market. The first of these, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Employment
Service Jobs</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which includes temporary employment, a prerequisite to overall
employment growth, fell for the first time in over a year. It registered a
decline of 2.1 percent relative to its 5 percent rise last August. While this
indicator has generally improved since last April, its slowing rate of
improvement coupled with an August decline calls into question whether it will
sustain its uptrend. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">New Claims</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> for Unemployment Insurance, the most timely measure of layoffs,
appears to now be in an uptrend (note: we want this to decline), as it has now
risen for five of the last seven months. A trend of rising layoffs will
adversely affect other CCI indicators in coming months, most notably </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Retail
Sales</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. The final leading indicator, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which
measures strength in our manufacturing sector, barely rose (by 0.6%). Its
recent performance has been spotty in light of stronger global economies that
boost exports and a weakening US economy.</span></span></span></span><br />
<br />Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-88027286311866644762013-09-18T21:00:00.000-04:002013-09-18T21:00:37.576-04:00Current Conditions Index: July 2013<span style="font-family: inherit;">Below is a partial version of the July Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables and historical data, can be found on my web site: </span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/"><span style="color: #d52a33;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">www.llardaro.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> .</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Rhode Island began the third quarter on a very positive
note, as the pace of activity during the second quarter was sustained. </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">The
performance of </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Rhode Island’s economy </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">for Ju</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ly</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> was </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">quite</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> good, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">with the Current Conditions Index </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">register</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ing</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> a value
of 75, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">as </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">nine of 12 indicators improv</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ed</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. Importantly, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">the
overall strength of most of the </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">leading</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">
indicators </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">contained in the CCI has continued through all of this year (including
July), which is </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">a welcome </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">occurrence as we enter the final half of the year</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. </span><o:p></o:p><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Importantly, t</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">he
primary negative f</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">rom last month</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">wa</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">s </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">eliminated in July — </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">the </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">CCI once again beat its value from a year ago. So, only once this
year, June, has the CCI </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">failed to beat </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">its year-earlier level. Given the strength we witnessed starting in
August of last year, we may well witness several more months where the CCI is
unable to exceed its prior-year values, which will reflect a slowing in our
rate of growth. Let’s cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, we should
be focusing on all of the p</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ositive news </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">contained </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">in this </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">month’s data along with </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Rhode Island's econom</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ic
performance</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">thus far in </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">2013.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Before doing this, let me to reiterate a point I made last
month. Many remain confused by the seeming paradox of how a </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">state's
economy </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">showing such </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">momentum</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> can remain so far </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">below where </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">it was b</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ack in 2006 and 2007</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">.</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">The answer, plain and simply, is that </span><i><u><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">current </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">levels of
economic activity depend on </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">both the </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">rates of growth </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">we are experiencing and </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">the prior </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">activity </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">levels
themselves</span></u></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">During The Great Recession, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Rhode Island</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">’s
overall economy along with many of its indicators, declined greatly, about as
far, if not farther, than just about any other state</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">So</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">our
recent rates </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">of growth applied to </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">these </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">depressed </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">activity </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">level</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">s</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">continue to generate r</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">elatively small changes in the </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">actual </span><u><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">level</span></u></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> of
economic activity here</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">.</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> Don’t expect this to change any time soon!</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rhode Island has yet to undertake </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">the hard
work </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">required </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">to reinvent itself and to make its economy more competitive. </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Recent </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">organizational
changes </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">will do virtually nothing return us to where we once were. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;">All four of the CCI’s leading indicators
turned in strong performances this month. Three of them did so in spite of very
strong “comps” from a year ago. The uptrend in </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit
Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, a leading indicator of housing, continued, reflecting further
movement beyond its trough. Permits rose 6 percent in July and have now settled
into a range of 70+ each month. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">US Consumer Sentiment</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> improved
for the sixth consecutive month in July, rising 17.7 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">The remaining leading indicators are
related to the labor market. The first of these, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Employment
Service Jobs</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which includes temporary employment, a prerequisite to overall
employment growth, rose by 1.5 percent in July. While this indicator has
consistently improved since last April, its rate of improvement has clearly
slowed of late. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">New Claims</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> for Unemployment Insurance is the most timely measure of layoffs. It
recently appeared to be returning to a downtrend, but this change is not
apparent at present. New Claims rose by 2.2 percent in July, its fourth
increase in the last six months. Declining layoffs will be critical if Rhode
Island is to continue improving as we move through the second half of the year.
The fourth of the CCI’s leading indicators, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Total Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which
measures strength in our manufacturing sector, jumped by a very healthy 4.1
percent, driven by higher employment and the workweek.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span></span> </div>
Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-71378200091704626092013-08-14T17:41:00.001-04:002013-08-14T17:41:27.767-04:00Current Conditions Index: June 2013Below is a partial version of the June Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables and historical data, can be found on my web site: <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/"><span style="color: #d52a33;">www.llardaro.com</span></a> .<br />
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The second quarter for Rhode Island turned out to be
significantly better than had been anticipated at the beginning of this year,
consistent with the second quarter acceleration in the pace of national
economic activity. The performance of Rhode Island’s economy for June was very
good, as the Current Conditions Index registered a value of 75, with nine of 12
indicators improving. Importantly, the overall strength of most of the <i>leading</i>
indicators contained in the CCI has been sustained over the first half of this
year, a positive and welcome sign as we move into the remainder of this year. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The primary negative for this month is the fact that the
CCI's value of 75 this June failed to beat last year’s level, the first time in
2013 that this has occurred. Given the strength we witnessed during the second
half of 2012, this is not likely to be the last time this phenomenon occurs. In
spite of this, there continues to be a significant amount of positive news in
this month’s data as well as for Rhode Island's economic performance in 2013.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Before
discussing this month’s indicator results, I need to clarify a point that
appears to be confusing a number of persons I have spoken to over the past
several months: If our state's economy has such strong momentum, why then are
we still so far<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>below where we were back
in 2006 and 2007? In order to answer this question, it is important to keep in
mind that <i><u>current levels of economic activity depend on both the rates of
growth we have been experiencing as well as the prior activity levels
themselves</u></i>. This is where Rhode Island finds itself in such a
frustrating situation. Rhode Island's economy was hit extremely hard during the
last recession, as the level of economic activity here fell about as far, if
not farther, than just about any other state. Therefore, satisfactory rates of
growth applied to the highly depressed level of economic activity here has
resulted in relatively small changes in the <i>actual level</i> of economic
activity. Welcome to our world! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">My
greatest concern moving forward is that Rhode Island has failed to do the hard
work required to reinvent itself and to make its economy more competitive. The
organizational changes instituted during the last legislative session are good,
but they fail to deal with our state’s most pressing problems. They represent
little more than yet another swipe at the symptoms of our state’s structural
problems, leaving our long-term weaknesses to fester.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Three of the CCI’s leading indicators turned in
strong performances this month, and all of those did so in spite of very strong
“comps.” The uptrend in <b>Single-Unit Permits</b>, a leading indicator of
housing, continued, reflecting further movement beyond its trough. Permits have
now settled into a range of about 70+ per month. The remaining leading
indicators that improved are related to the labor market. The first of these, <b>Employment
Service Jobs</b>, which includes temporary employment, a prerequisite to
overall employment growth, rose by a healthy 4.6 percent in June. This
indicator has consistently improved since last April. The other, <b>New Claims</b>
for Unemployment Insurance, is the most timely measure of layoffs. It has now
moved back into a clearly established downtrend, which is critical if Rhode
Island is to continue improving as we move into the third quarter. The fourth
of the CCI’s leading indicators, <b>Total Manufacturing Hours</b>, which
measures strength in our manufacturing sector, failed to improve in June, based
on a large drop in the workweek.</span></span></span></div>
Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-30146432927204637102013-07-18T22:21:00.000-04:002013-07-18T22:21:03.280-04:00Current Conditions Index: May 2013Below is a partial version of the May Current Conditions Index report. The full report, which includes tables and historical data, can be found on my web site: <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/">www.llardaro.com</a> .<br />
<br />
------------------------------------<br />
<br />
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The second quarter is progressing a little better for Rhode
Island than had previously been thought. It has been apparent that during the
first part of 2013, Rhode Island’s economy has not displayed as much momentum
as it did during the second half of 2012. And, even though the Current
Conditions Index values so far this year have lagged those from the final two
quarters of last year, at least this year’s values had been better than the
corresponding values one year ago, with the exception of April. Based on the
most recent data, the April CCI value was revised higher, from 67 to 75, so it
too bettered its year-earlier value. As for May, the CCI jumped to 83, with ten
of twelve indicators improving, tying its highest value thus far for 2013.
Furthermore, several of the CCI indicators in May improved despite difficult
“comps” last May. So, overall, several trends continue to take shape and May
points to the possibility that Rhode Island may re-accelerate in the second
half of 2013. This is not an unreasonable possibility, especially since the US
economy will likely continue to improve as we progress through 2013. The
primary question for Rhode Island is therefore, whether the improved values
later this year (assuming they occur) are improvements over the prior months
from last year. This will not be easy for Rhode Island, but it is certainly not
out of the question for us to see this occur. Any good news like that would be
more than welcome for our state, which CNBC recently referred to in its survey
of the Best States to Do Business as: “A perennial loser in our study...”</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="-ms-text-kashida-space: 50%; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let me state one important caveat
at this point: Don’t interpret the most recent data as indicating that Rhode
Island’s economy has already substantially strengthened, or that it is in the
process of jumping to much higher rates of growth. What we are seeing is that
after consolidating the gains from late last year, Rhode Island’s economy has
begun to gain momentum, at least through May. All of this is defining how Rhode
Island’s economy continues to recover from The Great Recession.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="-ms-text-kashida-space: 50%; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">All four of the CCI’s leading
indicators turned in strong performances this month, several in spite of very
strong “comps.” The continued uptrend in </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, a
leading indicator of housing, reflects continued movement beyond the low in new
home construction. Permits have now settled into a range of about 70+ per
month. The remaining leading indicators are related to the labor market. The
first of these, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Employment Service Jobs</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which includes temporary
employment, a prerequisite to overall employment growth, rose by a healthy 3.5
percent in May. This indicator has consistently improved since last April. The
second leading labor market indicator, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">New Claims</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> for
Unemployment Insurance, reflects layoffs. It appears to have resumed a
downtrend, which will be critical if Rhode Island is to continue improving as
we move through 2013. The final leading indicator, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Total
Manufacturing Hours</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, measures strength in our manufacturing sector. This indicator rose
again (by 1.0%), its tenth improvement in the last twelve months. Together with
</span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, there has been continuous and
sustained momentum in Rhode Island’s goods-producing sector.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">US
Consumer Sentiment</span></span></b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> improved
for the fourth consecutive month, in spite of a difficult comp. Related to
this, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Retail Sales</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> remained strong. While Rhode Island’s goods-producing sector is
performing well, its service-producing sector has fared less well. The rate of
growth in </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">P</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">rivate </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">S</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ervice</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">-P</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">roducing </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">E</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">mployment</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> remains well below a one percent rate (+0.4% in May). Its level has
stabilized around 350,000.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span>Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-27137758662760949502013-07-03T14:04:00.001-04:002013-07-03T14:04:08.653-04:00RI's Economic Realities and the Reorganization of the EDC<span style="font-family: inherit;">This is an article I wrote in mid-May and submitted to <em><strong>The Providence Journal</strong></em>. They never published it, which is unfortunate since the realities of the economic climate this state finds itself in have been entirely absent from the public discussion of potential changes to the EDC and any reorganizations that may occur. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">-------------------------------------------</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In
recent days we have seen competing legislative proposals that seek to improve
Rhode Island's approach economic development. These are clearly welcome and
something we have to do. While these proposals contain a number of potentially
significant differences, what has yet to be done is to outline several critical
considerations that any such plan for Rhode Island must ultimately include.<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There
are a number of general principles that such plan must acknowledge. First and
foremost, Rhode Island is a post-manufacturing economy and has been so for over
twenty-five years. In a post-manufacturing economy, when layoffs occur, those
jobs are often eliminated, resulting in permanent job separation. Therefore, during
recoveries, it is necessary to create new jobs from scratch, which is both more
risky and costlier than it was during the manufacturing era when workers were largely
able to return to their prior jobs. Therefore, layoffs occur in both good times
and bad, so job loss consistently accompanies job gains. While Rhode Island has
seen job loss drop sharply since The Great Recession, job gain has remained
sluggish, even as our economy has improved.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Second,
back when Rhode Island was a manufacturing-based economy, changes were largely
cyclical in nature. The economy would therefore turn itself around as soon as
cyclical forces corrected themselves and quickly began producing more jobs and
output, resulting in strong recoveries. Today, the economy doesn't just turn
itself around because structural changes routinely accompany cyclical factors. Perhaps
the greatest challenge in this regard is technology-induced gains in labor
productivity. In order for a state to grow more rapidly, it must therefore earn
it through proactive and continual improvement in its economic climate. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In
light of these general principles, Rhode Island will need to initiate three
institutional changes. The first of these, as acknowledged by the different
plans, is the creation of a Council of economic advisers (CEA). However, unlike
what has been described thus far, the CEA should not be relegated to merely
gathering and disseminating data. That task is far more effectively
accomplished using existing agencies such as the DLT. Instead, the CEA should
define the specific data that need to be gathered in order for it to conduct
in-depth economic analyses and to make policy recommendations.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For
example, at present, Rhode Island has no idea how large its non-defense tech
employment is. The CEA as I envision it would therefore commission the ongoing
collection of that data through time, by industry, and by firm size, analyze it,
determine both Rhode Island's strengths and weaknesses in this area, and make
policy recommendations for meaningful and ongoing improvements.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What
will become of this analysis undertaken by the CEA and its recommendations?
That should form the basis of Rhode Island's economic plan. It is apparent from
existing discussions that the proposers don’t really comprehend what such a
plan would ultimately be or what should go into that plan. Worse yet, they seem
to believe you can somehow come up with a plan, abandon it for four years, then
dust it off and start again. In a post manufacturing economy that will never
do. Any plan must be an ongoing and primary vision for the state's future based
on in-depth economic analysis.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Finally,
Rhode Island must create in-house capability to perform due diligence. This is
the necessary condition for enlightened decision making. Its absence has been at
the heart of many of the problems we have experienced over the past decades.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This
newly instituted due diligence capability should be performed exclusively by
economists with advanced degrees who have documented experience in undertaking
such research (which includes the use of economic impact software). Once a
culture of due diligence has been created, we will quickly learn the economic
variables that matter, their interactions, and the actual magnitudes of their
impacts. This knowledge can then be disseminated in digital form as reference
not only for persons in state government, but to citizens of the state as well.
Perhaps most importantly, this capability would at long last equip Rhode Island
with the tools needed to combat “the numbers” provided by the various special
interest groups.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let
me conclude by noting that the greatest change required in all of this will be attitudinal:
If Rhode Island is to become far better managed, the culture of denial so prevalent
in the approach of our state's elected officials to economic matters must end.
Most importantly, as a matter of practice, accuracy has to supersede tone. I
can't emphasize this point enough.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Are
Rhode Island's elected officials capable of such attitudinal and institutional
changes? I certainly hope so, since Rhode Island's future economic viability is
tied to this. It isn’t too late for us to adapt to the kind of world we have
been living in for the last twenty-five years and to stop assuming, or should I
say, hoping, that our state’s economy will turn itself around and everything
will be fine.</span></span></div>
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Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-69226539260519410252013-06-11T13:08:00.000-04:002013-06-11T13:08:18.774-04:00Current Conditions Index: April 2013<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;">Below is an abbreviated version of the April 2013 Current Conditions Index report. The full report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on my web site: </span></span></span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/" style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #7d181e; line-height: 22px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;">http://www.llardaro.com</span></span></a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;"></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;">-------------------------------------</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">The assessments of Rhode Island's economy
provided by the Current Conditions Index over the past few years were recently
confirmed by data released from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The
CCI showed that Rhode Island's economy was virtually flat in 2011, with an
average value of 55 for the entire year (approximately a neutral value), before
accelerating in 2012, mainly during the second half of the year. According to
the BEA data, real GDP for Rhode Island was unchanged in 2011, then accelerated
to a 1.4% rate of growth in 2012. I had referred to this uptick as our
“shifting into higher gear” and noted that for Rhode Island, shifting into a
higher gear meant moving to third gear, unlike many other states which had
already moved to even gears. Sadly, my assessment turned out to be a bit too
accurate: <i><u>the 1.4 percent rate of growth in 2012 for Rhode Island was its
highest rate since 2006!</u></i> <o:p></o:p></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">According to the CCI values for 2013,
Rhode Island’s economy has slowed a bit from its accelerated pace in late 2012.
During the first three months of this year, the CCI had moved between 67 and
83. Although two of the three values weren't particularly strong, all three did
manage to beat their year-earlier values (part of the weaker portion of 2012).
For April, the CCI slid once again to 67 as only eight of twelve indicators
improved. And, for the first time this year, the CCI failed to better its
year-earlier value.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;">Don’t interpret this as indicating that
Rhode Island’s economy has substantially weakened, or that it is about to fall
off of a cliff. Instead, the pace of economic activity here has leveled off to
about what we attained by the end of 2012. That’s not great, but a lot better
than virtually anything we have seen since 2006.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;">In spite of all of this, there was cause
for optimism in April’s data. Two leading indicators turned in strong
performances, while a few of our recent strong indicators had to overcome
strong comps from a year ago. The continued uptrend in <b>Single-Unit Permits</b>,
a leading indicator, reflects our having moved past a bottom in new home
construction. In spite of recent volatility, permits appear to have settled
into a range of about 60+ permits per month. <b>Employment Service Jobs</b>,
also a leading indicator, reflects temporary employment, a prerequisite to
overall employment growth. This indicator has consistently improved since last
April. This April, it rose by a stunning 10.6 percent compared to a year ago. <b>US
Consumer Sentiment</b> failed to improve (but barely) for only the second time
in over a year, although its comp from a year ago was very difficult to beat. </span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black;">Rhode Island’s manufacturing sector
continued to show strength, as <b>Total Manufacturing Hours</b> rose again (by
1.7%) while our <b>Manufacturing Wage </b>continued to rise at what I believe
to be a non-credible rate (4.2%). <b>New Claims</b> for Unemployment Insurance,
which reflects layoffs, has begun to rise on a year-over year basis, a very
unwelcome development. It has been trending higher on a monthly basis since the
third quarter of last year. <b>Private Service-Producing Employment</b>, whose
growth has fallen to below one percent of late, appears to be in the process of
stabilizing around 350,000.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;">While Rhode Island’s <b>Unemployment Rate</b>
fell to 8.8 percent in April, this change is <i>not</i> as significant an
indicator of Rhode Island’s momentum as many here seem to believe. Not only is
the <b>Unemployment Rate</b> a lagging economic indicator, most of its recent
monthly declines have coincided with declines in our <b>Labor Force</b>,
reflecting the fact that a number of our state’s jobless residents are
continuing to drop out of the <b>Labor Force</b> as they are no longer actively
searching for employment (part is also related to retirements). </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="color: #00747a; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;">See the full report (with tables) at: </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/">http://www.llardaro.com </a> .</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
</span></span></span>Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-44571396686123389942013-05-17T11:00:00.000-04:002013-05-17T11:42:17.427-04:00Is the Recent Decline in RI's Labor Force an Anomaly?Yesterday we received the April labor market data for Rhode Island. While many celebrated the fact that our state's jobless rate fell below 9%, I raised the question, as I have on numerous occasions over the years, about whether or not this is truly cause for celebration. Clearly, a lower jobless rate is preferred to a higher one. However, is important to assess not only the level of the unemployment rate but the reasons that underlie how (and why) it is changing.<br />
<br />
My guess is that many people here believe that the April decline in our labor force that accompanied our jobless rate improvement really isn't very important, and that somehow this was a one time or rare event. Instead of my stating what I believe is the only reasonable conclusion here, I will let you judge for yourself. Below is a chart (click to enlarge) that shows Rhode Island's labor force and unemployment rate dating all the way back to 2009. Included in this chart is a vertical line denoting when the current recovery began (in February 2009).<br />
<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2vXUy38Ui1Q/UZY0XgiqBlI/AAAAAAAAAXg/gQMPOhbg0DU/s1600/labfc_unemp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2vXUy38Ui1Q/UZY0XgiqBlI/AAAAAAAAAXg/gQMPOhbg0DU/s400/labfc_unemp.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
I believe the graph illustrates rather conclusively that the combination of declines in both the unemployment rate and labor force is not the exception, but instead has been the rule over this entire period with few exceptions. Let me state that even prior to 2009, there were more instances that I can remember where we saw this combination of declines in both our unemployment rate and labor force.<br />
<br />
In fact, when I designed my Current Conditions Index (CCI), I explicitly took this relationship into account, which I would not have done for any other state. Specifically, I included as <em>two separate indicators</em> the labor force and the unemployment rate. The significance of including them as a pair arises from months like April: an improving unemployment rate is a +1 for the monthly CCI value, while the decline in the labor force is a -1. The result is that these two changes cancel, leaving the monthly CCI value unchanged. Therefore, a decline in Rhode Island's jobless rate <em>by itself</em> does not necessarily improve the Current Conditions Index value for a given month.<br />
<br />
Let me conclude by noting a unique fact for Rhode Island. <em>Rhode Island is the only state that has been consistently losing population since July of 2004</em>. In general, a smaller population adversely impacts the size of a state's labor force. In the coming months, this will make it more difficult for Rhode Island to reverse the well-established downtrend in its labor force. Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-13380785980902702202013-04-19T11:00:00.002-04:002013-04-19T11:00:59.648-04:00Current Conditions Index; February 2013<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Below is an abbreviated version of the February 2013 Current Conditions Index report. The full report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on my web site: </span></span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/" style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #7d181e; line-height: 22px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://www.llardaro.com</span></a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Just as persons in Rhode Island finally
discovered that our state’s economy performed considerably better than the
flawed labor market data had led us to believe throughout 2012, we wake up to
the reality that the first two months of 2013 have not been as kind to our
state’s economy. During the second half of 2012, Rhode Island’s recovery
clearly strengthened, as the breadth of overall economic activity here (the
number of indicators improving) and the pace of this recovery accelerated. We
attained Current Conditions Index values of 92 twice in late 2012 and finished
the year with a pair of 83 values, as ten of the twelve CCI indicators
improved. For January of 2013, the CCI fell to 75, and in February, <i><u>the
third anniversary of Rhode Island’s recovery</u></i>, the CCI fell to 67, as
only eight CCI indicators improved. Happy Anniversary! At least it is still
possible to say that while the CCI values for each of the first two months this
year were somewhat discouraging relative to what we saw in the second half of
2012, both did manage to exceed year-earlier values.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This isn’t the first time I can recall
seeing less impressive performance than what we had apparently missed after
upwardly revised data were released. What a tease! </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I wish I could say that this month’s
indicator performance was in some way misleading, that there is reason to
believe that Rhode Island’s economy isn’t slowing, but <i><u>the data show
rather convincingly that Rhode Island’s economy has in fact slowed during the
first two months of 2013</u></i>. Perhaps even worse, two critical indicators
that have been strong performers for some time now <i>may</i> be in the process
of reversing their trends.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The first of these is <b>Retail Sales</b>.
Its performance has been stellar, as its year-over-year growth rates have
exceeded 3 percent, reaching over 6 percent several times since October. It is
quite possible that the combination of the lapse of the Payroll Tax Holiday and
high gasoline prices will produce retail weakness throughout the first half of
2013. The other indicator is <b>New Claims</b> for Unemployment Insurance. This
is a leading indicator that reflects layoffs. On a year-over year basis it has
improved for some time now. It has, however, begun to weaken on a monthly
basis, which could eventually translate into weakness year-over-year.</span></span><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif" mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Along with both of these, several of the
indicators that were supposedly declining but actually improved last year have
begun to slow as well. Growth in our state's <b>Labor Force</b> has moderated
since December, as has <b>Employment Service Jobs</b>, a leading labor market
indicator. The same is true for <b>Private Service-Producing Employment</b>,
which saw its growth fall below 1 percent for the first time since December. To
be fair, there was a “strange” behavior for payroll employment in February, as
it fell from January’s level, which is very likely responsible for the slowing
rates of growth for both <b>Employment Service Jobs</b> and <b>Private
Service-Producing Employment</b>. Let’s hope this doesn’t signal that the
employment data is getting “strange” again this year!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="color: #00747a; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; line-height: 18px;">See the full report (with tables) at: </span><a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://www.llardaro.com/" style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #d52a33; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://www.llardaro.com</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> .</span></span></span></span></span></div>
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Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-51225592283942440592013-04-12T11:33:00.002-04:002013-04-12T11:33:13.105-04:00So, How's Rhode Island's Economy Doing?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
New York City had a great mayor who recently passed away, Ed Koch. He became famous not only for his excellence as mayor, but for his saying: "So, how am I doing?" Now that Rhode Island's jobless rate has at long last fallen below double digits, this is a very good time to pose that question for Rhode Island's economy. </div>
<br />
It's particularly important to address this question for a number of reasons. Most importantly, in a well-run state, the leaders of that state continually assess both the strengths and weaknesses of their state's economy and work hard to make their economy more competitive. Clearly, they understand, to quote the old saying, that success is a journey, not a destination. But I digress. I want to talk about Rhode Island, which is hardly a well-run state and whose elected officials have yet to earn the designation "leaders." <br />
<br />
One of the major factors that I believe has held Rhode Island back is the mindset and psychology of its elected officials. In Rhode Island, our elected officials seem to always do things the same way: <em><u>they tend to restrict their focus exclusively to Rhode Island and its performance only at the present time</u></em>. A number of years back, I attempted to develop a nomenclature for the psychology of Rhode Island's elected officials. In a 2008 <a href="http://www.llardaro.com/RI_Cant_afford.html" rel="nofollow">article</a> I wrote for <em><strong>The Providence Journal</strong></em>, I described this behavior, which characterizes that mindset all too accurately, as <strong>PAROPIC</strong>. What does this word mean? It is a combination of "parochial" and "myopic." Welcome to our world! <br />
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This focus by Rhode Island's elected officials has proven to be disastrous in terms of our ability to move our state's economy forward. Consider, for example, that in the past several months Rhode Island's unemployment rate finally fell below 10%. To our states leaders, this was an end in itself, since our "metrics" were moving in the right direction. Apparently, our elected officials interpreted this as indicating that everything was beginning to move in the right direction, and as far as I can tell, they viewed this as reflecting the beginning of "the turnaround" of Rhode Island's economy that will set all right here. For them, success is obviously a destination.<br />
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This was a textbook example of paropic behavior! Why? Because while Rhode Island's unemployment rate was declining, so too were the rates in almost every other state. Ironically, when these declines occurred, Rhode Island moved into a first-place tie for the highest unemployment rate in the United States (tied with California in January). The only way this reality ever made it into the consciousness of our state's elected officials was as the result of media stories that almost always take comparative national performance into account.<br />
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The real question here is why Rhode Island's rate jobless has remained among the highest in the country, even though it has been declining of late. Furthermore, it's important to keep in mind that the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator. We need to go behind the scenes for this number to understand what is really going on.<br />
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Fortunately, that's not very difficult to do. If you want to understand why Rhode Island's unemployment rate became so high and has remained elevated for so long, you need to go no farther than an examination of the recent behavior of payroll employment. But such analysis should <em>not</em> be paropic. An informed analysis will look at the temporal performance of Rhode Island's payroll employment relative to that of neighboring states, our region, and the entire US.<br />
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The chart below (click to enlarge) shows payroll employment for Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New England as a whole, and the US since 2005. <br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CuqC7h7zl5E/UWgTV_SFI_I/AAAAAAAAAWw/LVhu0glicSo/s1600/RI-thru-2012.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="245" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CuqC7h7zl5E/UWgTV_SFI_I/AAAAAAAAAWw/LVhu0glicSo/s400/RI-thru-2012.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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What should be apparent from the outset is that Rhode Island has clearly distinguished itself. Not in terms of stellar performance, but by how it has underperformed all of the entities to which it is being compared over this period. What are the distinguishing features, or "stylized facts" of Rhode Island's comparative payroll employment performance since 2005?<br />
<ol>
<li>Rhode Island's economy experienced its employment peak before that of everyone else in the chart;</li>
<li>Payroll employment for Rhode Island fell noticeably farther in percentage terms than anyone else in this chart;</li>
<li>While Rhode Island's payroll has clearly risen since its trough in mid-2009, it has risen more slowly than anyone else in this chart;</li>
<li>From its employment trough, Rhode Island's payroll employment has only risen by 2.5 percent, far less than anyone else considered above; and</li>
<li>As of January 2013, Rhode Island's payroll employment remained about 6 percent below its peak (in December of 2006).</li>
</ol>
If you want to see our comparative unemployment rate performance, you could gather all of the required data and replicate the chart above. A far simpler way, however, is to simply print out the above chart, flip the page, then turn it upside down. If you do this, you will likely be amazed at how good of a job it does in allowing you to visualize Rhode Island's joblessness in a non-paropic manner -- in relative terms through time.<br />
Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-22759841693695470522013-03-23T10:34:00.001-04:002013-03-23T10:34:32.642-04:00Current Conditions Index: January 2013<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;">Below is an
abbreviated version of the January 2013 Current Conditions Index report. The full
report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on
my web site: </span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/" style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #7d181e; line-height: 22px; text-align: justify;">http://www.llardaro.com</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">The long-awaited revisions to Rh</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">od</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">e </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Island’s </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">labor
market data have finally arrived</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">.</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> While I have been </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">anticipating
</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">the</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">se</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> for
quite some time now, it appears that most people in the state remained unaware
of what was actually happening</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> until very recently</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. According to the previous </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">“</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">official</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">”</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> data,
Rhode Island was doing very badly</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. A</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">t one point</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">,</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> it
wasn't all that difficult to conclude that we had actually entered into a
double-dip recession. </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Throughout all of this</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, I kept chugging along each month </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">with </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">reports </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">indicating
that contrary to the “official” data, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">our </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">state’s </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">economy </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">wa</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">s
performing </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">fairly well in terms of its overall momentum and the breadth of
activity here</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">.</span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">The new data confirm my prior analysis. Not only
has </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Rhode Island's economy been improving for some time</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> now</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">the pace
of activity here </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">actually </span><i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">accelerated</span></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">dur</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">in</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">g</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> the </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">third and fourth quarters </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">of 2012. A quick examination of the
chart for the Current Conditions Index </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">(below, right) </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">shows th</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">is</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> very
clearly. The good news for me is that I can </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">now </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">stop providing t</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">w</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">o CCI
numbers each month.</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> As of January, Rhode Island’s recovery was 35 months old.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">According to CCI revis</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ions </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">for 20</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">12, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">values revised higher </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">for ten </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">of the
months</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">one was unchanged</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, and</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> December was revised down slightly. What a difference! For all of
2012, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">the CCI registered values of 83 or greater </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">five </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">times,
with two of those equal to </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">92.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"></span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">So, after strong </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">third and </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">fourth quarter</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">s in</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> 2012, Rhode Island began 2013 on yet another positive note as the </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">C</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">urrent </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">C</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">onditions
</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">I</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ndex
registered a value of 75, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">with </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">nine of 12 indicators improv</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ing</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. Among the </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">indicators
that improved were </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">several very strong</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">favorable trends. Not the least of these pertains to </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">R</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">etail </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">S</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ales</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">. Its
year-over-year growth has </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">matched or exceeded six percent </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">for three of the past four months. </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Along
with this</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, our state's </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">L</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">abor </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">F</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">orce</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> appears to have </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">finally </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">begun </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">to </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ris</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">e</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> again</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, starting in last </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">August. That </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">upward </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">trend makes the improvements in our state's </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">U</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">nemployment
</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">R</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ate</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> more
significant. </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Two changes I had anticipated were confirmed. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">P</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">rivate </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">S</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ervice</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">-P</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">roducing </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">E</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">mployment</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ha</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">s</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> actually
been rising for quite a while, as was true for </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">E</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">mployment
</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">S</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">ervice </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">J</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">obs</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">.
Finally, the revised CCI values show that Rhode Island was not stuck in a saw</span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">tooth
pattern through the middle of 2012. Instead, there was consistent </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">momentum
throughout all of last year </span><i><u><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">with an acceleration during the
second half of the year during which it is safe to conclude that </span><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Rhode
Island’s economy shifted into a higher gear</span></u></i><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Three indicators failed to improve in
January. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Government Employment</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">, which reflects the effects of
ongoing fiscal consolidation, hasn’t improved since August of 2010. It might be
in the process of bottoming, assuming that our recent momentum is sustained, as
it has fluctuated around 60,000 for several months now. </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">US
Consumer Sentiment</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> also failed to improve, but January’s decline was its first in almost
a year. Recent stock market momentum bodes well for this indicator. Lastly, </span><b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;">Single-Unit
Permits</span></b><span style="mso-arabic-font-family: Arial; mso-cyrillic-font-family: Verdana; mso-default-font-family: Verdana; mso-greek-font-family: Verdana; mso-hebrew-font-family: Arial; mso-latin-font-family: Verdana; mso-latinext-font-family: Verdana;"> fell in January, but its “comp” from a year ago was almost impossible
to beat due to the weather last January. The apparent bottoming of housing here
should help prevent this indicator from moving into a downtrend in the coming
months</span><span style="color: #00747a; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;">.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="color: #00747a; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #00747a; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;">-----------------------------</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #00747a; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"></span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #00747a; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">See the
full report (with tables) at: </span></span><a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://www.llardaro.com/" style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #d52a33; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://www.llardaro.com</span></a> .</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #00747a; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-contextual-alternates: yes; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></span></span> </div>
Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-24312122718345647942013-03-11T18:03:00.003-04:002013-03-11T18:03:33.054-04:00Rhode Island's Revised Labor Market Data<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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For the better part of a year, I have been addressing the problems with Rhode Island's "official" labor market data. On several occasions in years past, we have had situations where a divergence between the direction of changes in actual and official data emerged. Historically, though, these never occurred until October. Within a couple of months, we would get the rebenchmarked data and we'd be back to the correct labor market trends.</div>
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In this most recent episode, we were treated to something I had never seen in over two decades of analyzing Rhode Island's economy: a divergence between actual and "official" data that started in the first half of the year. Before I became aware of this, I had detailed how horrible the official data were in a series of blog posts. If those data were to be believed, then Rhode Island would indeed have entered into a double-dip recession.</div>
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The picture painted by that data was so incredibly negative, I became suspicious that things could be that bad -- even for Rhode Island! The primary basis for my suspicions was the apparent strength in a number of key economic indicators such as retail sales. While it was possible to explain some of the apparent divergences between retail sales and labor market weakness based the fact that Rhode Island rents out substantial numbers of its skilled residents to our neighboring states, I continued to sense that something still wasn't right. Then, one day, I received an email from the Department of Labor and Training stating that when these data are revised, they will show that payroll employment has been actually been rising, not falling, for some time now, a total contradiction of the "official" data. </div>
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In light of this rather strange situation, I went back and dusted off my econometric models for Rhode Island's labor market and updated them <em>using only non-survey based data</em>. Using those models, I then ran simulations attempting to gauge for myself what was actually happening, in spite of what the "official" data continued to say. Using the results of those simulations, I began to provide two monthly numbers for my Current Conditions Index: one was based on the "official" flawed data; the other was consistent with my simulated values. From that time forward, I presented what I was able to ascertain about the actual conditions in Rhode Island through this Blog and my monthly CCI reports.</div>
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I think of this time as my "Maytag Repairman" period (if you recall those commercials), as I was all alone in this endeavor, since all that was known and reported by our state's media was the flawed "official" monthly data. That, of course, created a real problem here since the data everyone was basing decisions on substantially <em>understated</em> Rhode Island's actual economic performance. Ironically, that made me the most positive and upbeat person when it came to assessing Rhode Island's economic performance. <strong><em>Accuracy cuts both ways!!!</em></strong></div>
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Last week, the revised data were at long last made public. What they showed was what I had anticipated and written about since around March 2012, that things here were actually better that we had been led to believe. Ironically, using the newly corrected data, the revised Current Conditions Index values were very close to the corrected values I had stated using my econometric simulations. In this post, I want to present three charts that highlight what was going on throughout that entire time period.</div>
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The first of these charts contrasts the originally presented data with the revised data going back to 2010 (click to enlarge). As should be apparent from this chart, there is a very substantial difference in the two sets of data that began around August of 2011. Perhaps most importantly, Rhode Island never flirted with the double-dip recession. Very much to the contrary, employment has shown a fairly healthy increase over the past two years, healthy for Rhode Island at least. </div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CVAkDZRH2Q8/UT4aFtlI7sI/AAAAAAAAAWg/79GlD3dhLog/s1600/Rebench_2012.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="292" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CVAkDZRH2Q8/UT4aFtlI7sI/AAAAAAAAAWg/79GlD3dhLog/s400/Rebench_2012.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The next chart (click to enlarge) shows the same data as the above chart but includes the actual trend for the correct data. I will leave it to you to figure out the trend for the inaccurate original data.</div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RS78WhgJ404/UT4Z5kM45TI/AAAAAAAAAWc/8mmTCerPPzE/s1600/rebench_trend.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="292" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RS78WhgJ404/UT4Z5kM45TI/AAAAAAAAAWc/8mmTCerPPzE/s400/rebench_trend.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The final chart (click to enlarge) shows changes in payroll employment for each month over the past two years. These are year-over-year changes, which means each month compares its value to the value one year ago (ex: December of 2012 with December of 2011, etc.). </div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fDj7KhGZA90/UT4Q8Bx32WI/AAAAAAAAAWE/b8PylZmnfrE/s1600/rebench_chgs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="251" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fDj7KhGZA90/UT4Q8Bx32WI/AAAAAAAAAWE/b8PylZmnfrE/s400/rebench_chgs.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The most striking feature of this chart is how year-over-year changes became negative starting all the way back in October of 2011, which led to the conclusion by some that Rhode Island may well have entered into a double-dip recession. That is the faulty data I found it necessary to improve the accuracy of through my simulations, ultimately reporting them in my monthly CCI reports. By contrast, the revised data show that year-over-year changes were never negative over this entire period: employment each month continued to exceed its year-earlier value. </div>
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Where does this leave us? Rhode Island is doing considerably better than we were led to believe based on the flawed "official" labor market data (based on the old benchmark). We have never flirted with a double-dip recession since the end of the last recession almost three years ago. But while Rhode Island's economy was improving, so too were the economies of almost every other state. So, six years from our prior payroll employment peak (December of 2006), Rhode Island employment remains about six percent below where it once was. Ironically, while our unemployment rate has declined, it is now below 10 percent, we continue to have either the highest or one of the highest jobless rates in the country.</div>
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How are these changes in payroll employment linked to our state's unemployment rate and its national ranking? What this post has shown is that Rhode Island's <em><u>level</u></em> of employment has continued to rise and never fall, as the original data showed. <strong><em><u>What matters in addition to this is how rapidly our employment is rising. </u></em></strong>Sadly, that's where Rhode Island comes up short. Rhode Island failed to reinvent itself and make itself more competitive throughout The Great Recession and afterwards. </div>
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Sadly, our elected officials appear to believe that because they have now decided that they actually want to do something about this, we should be able to quickly and easily remedy our state's deficiencies. Apparently they intend to go to Staples and purchase an "Easy" button. Sadly, things are never that easy. It will take a great deal of hard work and consistent effort guided by due diligence before things here begin to change in any significant way. Sadly, that's very different than their current standard operating procedure, D + M: Denial + Manana. If the day ever comes when our elected officials actually begin to lead, all of us will be happily surprised by how much our state's economy will be able to improve.</div>
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<object height="1" id="plugin0" style="position: absolute; z-index: 1000;" type="application/x-dgnria" width="1"><param name="tabId" value="{337FEA2B-3662-4342-842E-6607178F742A}" /></object>Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8637980829084459014.post-75545630257309628402013-02-11T21:07:00.001-05:002013-02-11T21:07:37.280-05:00Current Conditions Index: December 2012<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;">Below is an abbreviated version of the December Current Conditions Index report. The full report (in PDF format) along with tables and historical reports is available on my web site: </span><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/" style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #7d181e; line-height: 22px; text-align: justify; text-decoration: initial;">http://www.llardaro.com</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; line-height: 18px;"> .</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">What an incredible way to end 2012! The
Current Conditions Index for December rose all the way to 92 — its highest
level since </span><i><u>November of 2003</u></i>. It is now abundantly clear that
Rhode Island’s economic performance during the fourth quarter was its strongest
in terms of overall <i>momentum</i> (not levels, though) for quite some time. The fourth quarter average
for the CCI was 80.7 using the flawed labor market data, and 86 with my
estimates of how the numbers will be changed with the release of the
rebenchmarked data. More importantly, though, the labor market data apparently
became less flawed as 2012 progressed, so for December, and hopefully future months,
a single CCI value accurately
characterizes Rhode Island’s economic performance.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">For December, </span><i>eleven of
the twelve</i> CCI indicators improved. A number of these turned in relatively
strong performances. The sole indicator that failed to improve was <b>Government
Employment</b>, which reflects the effects of ongoing fiscal consolidation. While
that indicator hasn’t improved since August of 2010, it might soon bottom if
the momentum gains registered in the fourth quarter are sustained. At any rate,
Rhode Island’s recovery was 34 months old as of December.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">What all of this indicates is that during
the fourth quarter, none of the strong
monthly performances we witnessed were “one month wonders.” What we saw
unfolding was a trend of more broadly based economic activity that continued to
increase our state’s economic momentum. </span><i><u>It is now safe to conclude that as
2012 ended, Rhode Island’s economy shifted into a higher gear</u></i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">In light of this recent momentum, it is
important reiterate the distinction between levels of economic activity and
rates of growth. The Current Conditions Index is a </span><i>momentum</i>
indicator. As such, its values reflect how broadly based economic activity is
(i.e., the greater the number of improving indicators, the more broadly based
is economic activity, indicating greater underlying momentum). It does <i>not</i> focus on
the <i>levels</i> of the various indicators. So, as 2012 ended, we witnessed a
broadening of economic activity that produced greater momentum, as reflected by
<i><u>the rates of change</u></i> in the CCI indicators and our
state’s economy. This says nothing about current levels. So, while Rhode
Island’s economy continues to improve, driven by this added momentum, the <i>levels</i> of key
variables like payroll employment remain well below the values they attained during
the last recovery. We remain about six percent below our last employment peak,
which explains the persistence of high unemployment here. According to the
fourth quarter CCI performance, we are moving towards our prior peak <i>more
rapidly</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">For December, all five of the
non-survey-based indicators improved. </span><b>Retail Sales</b>
sustained its recent strength, registering a strong 3.2 percent growth rate
versus last December, its twelfth increase in the past fourteen months. Along
with this, <b>US Consumer Sentiment</b> rose once again (+4.2%), helped by
improvement in the national economy. <b>Benefit Exhaustions</b>,
reflective of longer-term unemployment, barely fell, but its downward
(improvement) trend remains intact. New home construction, based on <b>Single-Unit
Permits</b>, surged by 35.1 percent, as home construction continues to move
beyond its recent bottom. In spite of this, levels remain extremely subdued by
historical standards, partly the result of the sustained declines in our state’s population. Finally, layoffs,
in terms of <b>New Claims</b> for Unemployment Insurance, fell sharply in December (4.9%),
reversing last month’s increase.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">Apparently the flawed labor market data
became less problematic as 2012 ended. So, while its levels remain inaccurate,
year-over-year changes have become more accurate, which explains improvements
in key indicators like the </span><b>Labor Force</b>, <b>Private Service-Producing Employment</b>, and <b>Employment
Service Jobs</b>. Manufacturing activity, though, has sustained it strength, as <b>Total
Manufacturing Hours</b> rose by 3.7 percent, and our <b>Manufacturing Wage</b> growth
slowed to “only” 4.8 percent.<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">The Current Conditions Index is a </span><i>momentum</i>
indicator. Its values reflect how broadly based economic activity is (i.e., the
greater the number of improving indicators, the more broadly based is economic
activity) and the resulting underlying momentum. It does <i>not</i>,
however, dwell upon the levels of the various indicators or the overall
economy. So, at present, assuming the fourth quarter results hold, we are
witnessing a broadening of economic activity here that has produced greater
momentum. This reflects <i><u>the rates of change</u></i> of the CCI indicators and our
state’s economy. It says nothing about
current levels. This is where things get a bit discouraging: while Rhode
Island’s economy is improving, the levels of key variables like payroll
employment remain far below the values they attained at the height of the last
recovery (our employment peak occurred in December of 2006). We still remain
about six percent below our employment peak. The recent CCI performance
indicates that we are moving toward our prior peak <i>at a more
rapid rate</i>. Obviously, the greater is sustained momentum, the shorter is the
time before we reach a prior peak. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext;">For November, (at least) nine of the twelve
CCI indicators improved. Importantly, November saw only the second increase in
our state’s </span><b>Labor Force </b>since the end of 2010! Four of the five non-survey-based indicators,
those that don’t suffer from the flaws currently plaguing the “official” labor
market data, showed substantial improvement versus one year ago. <b>Retail
Sales</b> sustained its recent strength, registering a strong 6 percent growth
rate versus last November, its eleventh increase in the past thirteen months.
Along with this, <b>US Consumer Sentiment</b> once again surged by just under 30
percent, helped by improvement in the national economy. <b>Benefit
Exhaustions</b>, reflective of longer-term unemployment, also fell at a double-digit
rate (-12.3%), sustaining its downward (improvement) trend. New home construction,
based on <b>Single-Unit Permits</b>, rose by 3 percent, providing
further evidence that it reached a bottom several months ago. In spite of this,
its levels remain subdued, partly the result of our state’s declining
population. The sole disappointment was for layoffs, in terms of <b>New Claims</b> for
Unemployment Insurance, which rose by 1.6 percent. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">See the full report at:<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_1155213183" style="color: #7d181e; text-decoration: initial;"> </a><a href="http://www.llardaro.com/" style="color: #7d181e; text-decoration: initial;">http://www.llardaro.com</a> .</span></div>
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Leonard Lardarohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08880185703810283526noreply@blogger.com0